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According to DRAMeXchange, a division of global research firm TrendForce, initial DRAM price trend projections for the second half of 2013 were gloomy, but the September fire at SK Hynix’s Wuxi fab temporarily resulted in severe supply shortage. Spot prices increased by 40% with DDR3 2Gb hitting US$2, while contract price reached a high of US$34. However, as SK Hynix and Samsung both increased production in the wake of the fire, the price uptrend that resulted from the incident has already been suppressed, and the contract price trend is expected to stay flat or decrease slightly in the fourth quarter...
In the second quarter, NAND flash bit output only increased 8.4% QoQ since suppliers did not expand capacity. Furthermore, as manufacturers reduced supply to channel clients to help stabilize the market, smartphone and tablet shipments were as expcted. With healthy supply and demand, second-quarter NAND flash contract price was roughly the same as the previous quarter...
DRAM contract price increased by 16% in the second quarter, with DDR3 4GB price hitting US$27.50. Although PC shipments are traditionally weak in the second quarter, PC OEMs’ DRAM inventory levels were insufficient in the second quarter and they expected prices to rise in the third quarter. Furthermore, as first-tier DRAM makers like Samsung and SK Hynix are increasing mobile memory production and decreasing commodity DRAM output, second-quarter prices rose. However, as PC shipment outlook is weak for the second half of the year, DRAM contract price growth slowed at the end of the second quarter, creating uncertainty towards third-quarter figures. Furthermore, as PC OEMs’ inventory levels are climbing, TrendForce expects contract price to stay flat or even decrease in the second half of the year...
Although NAND flash demand fell by 5-10% in the first quarter due to seasonality, bit growth only increased by 8% QoQ as a result of suppliers slowing capacity expansion plans to decrese output. Thus, the sufficiency ratio fell to 2.8% in the first quarter, keeping NAND flash contract prices at a healthy level...
DRAM spot price was strong in the first quarter; average DDR3 4GB contract price increased nearly 36%, from US$17.25 to US$23.5, while 2GB module price rose an average of almost 44%. From the market perspective, as top tier DRAM makers continue to shift production to mobile and server memory, commodity DRAM is forecast to account for 32% of total DRAM output this year, down from 44% in the fourth quarter of 2012. Beginning in the second quarter of 2013, mobile DRAM will replace commodity DRAM as the product category with the greatest share of the memory market...
After the Chinese New Year holiday, NAND flash market related vendors anticipate seasonality will result in a sluggish market starting from late 1Q13 . Although vendors are temporarily pulling back on capacity expansion plans to slow bit supply growth, NAND flash prices remain on a slight downtrend. As new smartphone, tablet, and ultrabook models hit the market and spur restocking demand in the second half of the year, NAND flash prices may have a chance to recover in the third quarter...
With top-tier DRAM makers lowering commodity DRAM output to turn to more profitable mobile and server DRAM products, in addition to strong MID demand in China, commodity DRAM spot prices increased in the fourth quarter. DDR3 1600Mhz 2Gb chip price rose from US$0.82 to US$1.05, an increase of nearly 30%. Prior to the Chinese New Year holiday, strong restocking demand resulted in 2Gb price approaching US$1.30, a surge of almost 60% since prices began rising last year...
Currently, NAND flash suppliers are conservative on market demand and capex figures for 2013, relying instead on technology migration to increase bit output, strengthening cost competitiveness to reduce losses due to price decline. TrendForce forecasts NAND flash market bit supply will increase from 14,858 M 16Gb equiv. in 2012 to 20,960 M 16Gb equiv. in 2013, a 41.1% YoY increase...
Looking at the global mobile DRAM market in the third quarter of 2012, with the decline of the PC industry, global DRAM industry revenue fell by 8.5% in the third quarter of 2012. Regardless, top-tier memory makers continue expanding in the mobile DRAM sector, and mobile DRAM output is expected to account for 21% of total DRAM production this year, and 26% in 2013. As for price, the mobile DRAM contract price decline eased to a 5% drop this quarter, a significant improvement over the average decrease of 10-15% in the first half of the year. As mobile DRAM output continues to increase, revenue has seen 15.4% growth since the previous quarter...
Affected by global economic instability, many NAND flash suppliers are adopting a conservative outlook towards the NAND flash market in 2H12; NAND flash manufacturers’ 2012 bit output growth comes mainly from process technology migration. Recently, several NAND flash makers have either temporarily reduced capacity utilization rate and suspended or slowed original capacity expansion plans for 2H12, or reallocated NAND flash production lines to the manufacture of other IC products. Slowed 2H12 bit growth and reduced capex figures will help close the NAND flash market supply-demand gap in 2H12...
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