Industry trend & Price trend

IT panel industry is expected to see a peak season in the second half of the year. Indicators such as channel inventory and brand inventory have improved from the slump last year, and a rebound in demand can be expected in the second half of the year. However, commercial IT panels are being purchased quite cautiously due to high inflation and economic uncertainties, while consumer IT panels can be expected to perform better.

In the display sector, there has been an observed increase in prices for gaming monitors, but it is unlikely to see a large-scale replenishment like in the TV market due to sufficient supply of IT panels and increasing production capacity in China. There is limited room for a significant price increase, but consumer displays may experience a small rebound, unlike commercial displays.

As for TVs, it is expected that the cost of production will surpass cash cost in May and June, leading panel manufacturers to increase their production rates. The extent of this increase will be crucial, as it could potentially drive panel prices higher or stall the price increase altogether. Production increase poses a significant uncertainty for supply and price hikes, with the third quarter remaining a key period that will depend on demand. If China returns to cash levels, higher production rates could be a potential risk.

Utilization rate

According to TrendForce, global panel manufacturers had a production capacity utilization rate of around 67%-68% in the first quarter, which is expected to increase to 73%-74% in the second quarter. The third quarter is conservatively estimated to reach utilization rate of nearly 80%.

China Dominates the LCD Market

As Samsung and LG Display gradually withdraw from the LCD market, Chinese panel manufacturers continue to expand their market share. This year, the global shipment volume for TV panels is expected to reach 70% market share.

TrendForce’s research shows that material shortages, logistical delays, and relief subsidies for the American people not only supported global TV panel shipments in 1H21, but also drove an extended rise in quotations. However, as end product inventory climbed, stocking momentum fell rapidly in 2H21, not only inducing a sluggish peak season, but also bringing about a 1H22:2H22 shipment ratio that deviated from historical precedent. Shipment volume was not the only performance statistic to fluctuate in 2021. Originally planned factory closures were also delayed due to market demand, again transforming the entire industry landscape.

Looking forward to 2022, the global display production capacity of large generational fabs in 2022 will continue to grow through OLED production capacity generated by Korean panel manufacturers, the extension of LCD production, and continuing injection of maximum production capacity into the market from certain LCD production lines originating from panel manufacturers in other regions. Thus, overall TV panel supply is expected to spike dramatically. Although demand in emerging markets has recovered, TV panel quotations are also more prone to manipulation by branded panel companies than in 2021. A certain amount of momentum is expected in the end market for the stocking of TV panels. However, considering continually rising shipping and logistics costs, the unresolved global inflation issue, and life gradually returning to normal will inhibit the shipment performance of TV sets, demand for panels will also see an impact.

Therefore, after considering a number of factors, TrendForce expects global TV panel shipments to reach 281 million units in 2022, with an annual growth rate of 4.3%. As panel makers continue to implement a strategy of increasing panel size and overall shipments increase, positive growth is expected in size of shipped area.

The current global Gen5 and above large generational fab LCD panel supply and demand model shows that the growth rate of demand area cannot keep up with the growth rate of supply area and the shortfall between supply and demand in 2022 will be larger than that in 2021, which also suggests that panel manufacturers will meet tougher challenges in 2022. It is worth mentioning that there are still several key factors to be observed in 2022. For example, the closing schedule of LCD production lines at Korean panel factories, the adjustment of TV and IT panel capacity allocation, and the impact of the pandemic and war on whole device demand and component supply will all be key indicators of display industry trends leading into 2022.

（Image credit: Samsung）

Owing to demand generated by the persistent stay-at-home economy last year and from the emerging markets in certain developing countries, global TV shipment for 2021 is expected to reach 223 million units, a 3.1% growth YoY, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. The delay of UEFA Euro 2020 and the Tokyo Olympics until this summer will likely also play a role in driving up TV demand, regardless of whether live attendance will be allowed at the events. However, prices have increased repeatedly and considerably for not only IC components (used in TV set assembly), which are in shortage due to tight foundry capacities, but also TV panels. The price hike of TV panels has persisted since last June, with 32-inch panels, which are indicative of the rest of the TV panel market, reaching a massive 134% price hike for the period.

TrendForce’s investigations also show that the increase in panel prices has made it difficult for white-label manufacturers and tier 2/3 brands, which have traditionally relied on aggressive pricing to achieve their sales performances, to procure sufficient panels. Case in point, TV shipment from these companies has been gradually declining since last year. Conversely, suppliers have been giving major TV brands top priority ahead of the aforementioned companies to procure both panels and components because major TV brands generally place orders regularly and in large quantities. For the first time ever, the combined market shares of the top five brands, which are Samsung, LG, TCL, Hisense, and Xiaomi, surpassed 60% last year. This figure is expected to further increase to 62% in 2021, representing the fact that the TV market is progressively becoming an oligopoly.

As brands begin to favor large-sized products, 60-inch and larger TVs are expected to account for 17.7% of total TV shipment for the first time ever

With regards to various TV sizes, 32-inch panels have more than doubled in price since the start of the upturn last June. In response, TV brands have been transitioning their product lines to TVs that are at least 55 inches in size. More specifically, 55-inch TVs and ultra-large-sized TVs (60-inch and above) will account for 20% and 17.7% of the total TV shipment this year, respectively. Whereas the 20% shipment share of 55-inch TVs remained the same as last year, the 17.7% shipment share of ultra-large-sized TVs is 3.3% higher than last year’s figure. With regards to the annual shipment of ultra-large-sized TVs, 2021 marks a year of considerable growth compared to previous years, which generally saw YoY increases of 1-2%. This growth reflects the necessity for TV manufacturers to quickly leverage the consumer demand for large-sized TVs in order to maintain a stable growth in the industry, given the substantial price hike of TV panels.

As the difference between OLED and LCD panel prices narrows, TV brands are compelled to accelerate their OLED TV strategies

In response to the massive price hike of LCD panels, TV brands have begun to slightly raise the retail prices of TVs across various segments in order to keep up their bottom lines. However, if brands were to at once completely offload the increase in panel prices to the retail end, consumer demand would plummet as a result. A slow and gradual price hike is therefore expected to take place instead. Incidentally, it should be pointed out that the price hike of TV panels would be unlikely to stop in the short run even if the current panel shortage were alleviated in the future. As such, TV brands are expected to have limited room for profit growth in 2Q21.

The OLED panel market, on the other hand, has taken an opposite turn compared to the LCD market. For instance, prices of 55-inch UHD OLED panels were four times the prices of equivalent LCD offerings at the start of 2020, 2.9 times at the end of 2020, and 2.2 times in 1Q21, while prices of LCD panels underwent monthly increases. In addition to the narrowing gap between OLED and LCD panel prices, the panel industry’s production capacity for OLED panels saw a major boost thanks to the capacity expansion of LGD’s Gen 8.5 fab in Guangzhou. TrendForce expects OLED TV shipment for 2021 to reach 6.76 million units, a staggering 72% increase YoY, as OLED offerings become the top strategic priorities of TV brands in the high-end TV market this year.

For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms. Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at vivieliu@trendforce.com

Among the various display technologies used for smartphones in 2021, AMOLED models are expected to account for a 39% penetration, thanks to smartphone brands’ increasing adoption of this technology, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. In the entry-level and mid-range segments, the smartphone demand for a-Si LCD models remains strong, although this technology’s penetration rate is expected to undergo a slight decrease to 28%. On the other hand, LTPS LCD models are continuing to lose market share to competing technologies, resulting in a 33% penetration rate, while LTPS HD LCD models will occupy a growing share of this segment.

TrendForce indicates that smartphone brands’ procurement activities for components in 2H20 will persist throughout 2021 for two reasons: First, the industry on the whole expects demand for smartphones to ramp up considerably this year. Second, production capacities across the entire semiconductor supply chain have been tight, with some segments even showing severe shortage, thus prompting downstream clients such as smartphone brands to stock up on certain components in order to mitigate the potential risk associated with component shortages.

With regards to the development of smartphone display technologies, panel suppliers have been regaining client orders for rigid AMOLED panels through aggressive pricing since 2H20. Owing to increased adoption by smartphone brands this year, rigid AMOLED models are expected to maintain a strong market presence in the mid-range and premium mid-range segments. Flexible AMOLED models, on the other hand, will likely dominate the high-end and flagship segments. Going forward, AMOLED models will gradually cannibalize the market shares of LTPS LCD models in the mid-range and premium mid-range segments, in turn forcing LTPS LCD models into a lower price segment.

Market demand for entry-level and mid-range smartphones, especially for HD models, has remained strong since 2020, due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the supply of key components in these smartphones (including a-Si LCD panels as well as DDI and TDDI ICs) has been in shortage in light of the foundry industry’s tight production capacities. As prices of a-Si LCD panels and ICs spiked, panel suppliers saw this upturn as the perfect opportunity to fulfill the existing demand for a-Si products with LTPS products and in turn expend their production capacity for LTPD LCD panels. Smartphone brands began adopting a-Si HD and LTPS HD LCD panels interchangeably in an increasing number of models, thus giving TDDI ICs flexibility to be used in a greater number of compatible handsets.

At the moment, IC supply remains the greatest bottleneck in the overall smartphone supply chain; case in point, TDDI supply is tight to the point of shortage. TrendForce believes that two key factors will exert significant influence over the smartphone panel industry going forward: First, Chinese IC design companies are likely to obtain wafer input priorities in Chinese foundries thanks to government policies. These IC design companies may potentially experience considerable growth as a result and disrupt the predominant oligopoly of Taiwanese IC design companies in the smartphone panel market. Second, once the ongoing capacity expansion effort of Chinese foundries concludes, their additional production capacities will alleviate the current shortage of IC supplies, with IC prices subsequently entering a downward trajectory. As a result of lowered IC prices, the relationship between LTPS HD panels and a-Si HD panels will likely shift from complementary to competitive, with both product categories struggling for dominance in the HD smartphone model segment.

For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms. Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at vivieliu@trendforce.com