In 2023, the combined revenue of the world’s top ten IC design houses reached approximately $167.6 billion, marking a 12% annual increase. This growth was primarily driven by NVIDIA, which saw a remarkable 105% increase in revenue, significantly boosting the overall industry. While Broadcom, Will Semiconductor, and MPS experienced only marginal revenue growth, other companies faced declines due to economic downturns and inventory reductions, says TrendForce.
TrendForce’s latest forecasts reveal contract prices for DRAM in the second quarter are expected to increase by 13–18%, while NAND Flash contract prices have been adjusted to a 15–20% Only eMMC/UFS will be seeing a smaller price increase of about 10%.
This uptick in raw material costs has provided a solid foundation for EV battery prices in China to hold steady, with notable stability observed across various battery types, including square ternary, square LFP, and pouch-type ternary EV batteries, which posted average prices of CNY 0.48/Wh, 0.42/Wh, and 0.50/Wh, respectively.
These new regulations, which took effect on April 4th, are designed to prevent certain countries and businesses from circumventing U.S. restrictions to access sensitive chip technologies and equipment. Despite these tighter controls, TrendForce believes the practical impact on the industry will be minimal.
TrendForce has provided an update on the dynamics of Taiwan's semiconductor factories following the earthquake on April 3rd. Most wafer foundries were situated in areas that experienced a Level 4 intensity shake. Owing to the high-spec construction standards of Taiwan's semiconductor factories, which feature world-class seismic mitigation measures capable of reducing seismic impacts by 1 to 2 levels, the facilities were largely able to resume operations after inspection shutdowns quickly. Even though there were instances of wafer breakages or damages due to emergency shutdowns or earthquake damages, the capacity utilization rates of mature process factories—averaging between 50–80%—meant that losses were quickly recovered after operations resumed, resulting in only minor impacts on capacity.
TrendForce’s latest research indicates that the global lithium battery market remained subdued in January, with cell makers still working through their inventories and production rates lingering at low levels. The ASP of EV cells has continued to fall—the most significant drop was observed in EV pouch cells, which saw a MoM decline of 7.3% to CNY 0.51/Wh. While prices are expected to continue declining in February, the rate of decrease is likely to slow down.
TrendForce research indicates that despite facing a traditional low-demand season, buyers are continuing to increase their purchases of NAND Flash products to establish safe inventory levels. In response, suppliers, aiming to minimize losses are pushing for higher prices, leading to an estimated 15–20% increase in NAND Flash contract prices in 1Q24.
TrendForce reports that the DRAM contract prices are estimated to increase by approximately 13–18% in 1Q24 with mobile DRAM leading the surge. It appears that due to the unclear demand outlook for the entire year of 2024, manufacturers believe that sustained production cuts are necessary to maintain the supply-demand balance in the memory industry.
TrendForce reveals that the ASP of Chinese EV cells saw a 6–10% decrease in December. The prices for EV square ternary cells, LFP cells, and pouch ternary power cells fell to CNY 0.51/Wh, CNY 0.45/Wh, and CNY 0.55/Wh, respectively.