[Insights] Trendforce: Foundry Capacity Market Share of Advanced Process to Decline in Taiwan, Korea until 2027, While US on the Rise

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TrendForce’s latest findings revealed that as of 2024, Taiwan is expected to lead the global semiconductor foundry capacity in advanced manufacturing processes (including 16/14nm and more advanced technologies) with a 66% market share, followed by Korea (11%), US (10%), and China (9%). However, the semiconductor production capacities of advanced nodes in Taiwan and Korea are projected to decrease to 55% and 8%, respectively, by 2027.

It is worth noting that though semiconductor heavyweights including TSMC, SK Hynix and Samsung keep raising the amount of investments,  Taiwan and Korea, as the two countries holding the highest market share in advanced nodes, are expected to fall in their market shares.

On the other hand, in the US, where the government has been pushing incentives and subsidies more aggressively, its global capacity share in advanced manufacturing processes is expected to jump from 10% in 2024 to 22% in 2027.

Per the overall foundry capacity, Taiwan is expected to hold approximately 44% of global market share as of 2024, followed by China (28%), South Korea (12%), the US (6%), and Japan (2%). The overall trend is expected to be in line with advanced nodes. In contrast, the overall semiconductor production capacities of Taiwan and South Korea are projected to decrease to 40% and 10%, respectively, by 2027.

China, where foundries focus more on expanding mature process capacities and are backed by government subsidies, is projected to perform relatively strong in the overall global market share, growing from 28% in 2024 to 31% in 2027. Its market share of the matured process (including ≥28nm nodes) capacity is expected to rise from 33% in 2024 to 45% in 2027.

According to a report from THE CHOSUN Daily on May 10th, citing forecast from The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) and The Boston Consulting Group (BCG), in 2022, Taiwan and Korea held 69% and 31% shares of the production of the most advanced semiconductors below 10 nanometers, while their market share on the advanced nodes may fall to 47% and 9% in 2032, respectively.

The report as mentioned earlier stated that the dramatic decline in South Korea’s semiconductor production share is primarily attributed to key players like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, who currently dominate the global advanced semiconductor market alongside TSMC. However, instead of investing in South Korea, they have opted to establish their latest factories in the United States.

The US government announced earlier in April that it would provide up to USD 6.4 billion in subsidies to Samsung for expanding advanced chip production capacity at its Texas plant. In addition, SK Hynix plans to spend $3.87 billion building an advanced packaging plant and research center for artificial intelligence products in Indiana.

(Photo credit: Samsung)