With the approach to the end of 2023, TrendForce revealed the tech trends in every sector, apparently, AI continues as the main focus to decide the direction of how the tech supply chain will be in the next few years, here are the seeings:

CSPs increase AI investment, driving a 38% growth in AI server shipments by 2024

• CSPs increase AI investment, fueling a 38% growth in AI server shipments by 2024.
• Major CSPs like Microsoft, Google, and AWS are driving this growth due to the rising popularity of AI applications, pushing AI server shipments to 1.2 million units in 2023.

HBM3e set to drive an annual increase of 172% in HBM revenue

• Major memory suppliers are set to introduce HBM3e with faster speeds (8 Gbps) to enhance the performance of AI accelerator chips in 2024–2025.
• HBM integration is becoming common among GPU manufacturers like NVIDIA and AMD, and it is expected that HBM will significantly contribute to memory suppliers’ revenues in 2024, with an annual growth rate of 172%.

Rising demand for advanced packaging in 2024, the emergence of 3D IC technology

• Leading semiconductor firms like TSMC, Samsung, and Intel are emphasizing advanced packaging technology’s importance in boosting chip performance, conserving space, reduce power usage, and minimize latency. They’re establishing 3D IC research centers in Japan to underscore this role.
• Generative AI is driving increased demand for 2.5D packaging tech, integrating computing chips and memory with a silicon interposer layer. Additionally, 3D packaging solutions like TSMC’s SoIC, Samsung’s X-Cube, and Intel’s Foveros.

NTN is set to begin with small-scale commercial tests, broader applications of this technology are on the way in 2024

• Collaboration between satellite operators, semiconductor firms, telecom operators, and smartphone makers is growing due to increased satellite deployments by operators. This collaboration focuses on mobile satellite communication applications and bidirectional data transmission under specific conditions.
• Major semiconductor manufacturers are ramping up efforts in satellite communication chips, leading top smartphone manufacturers to integrate satellite communication into high-end phones using the SoC model, which is expected to drive small-scale commercial testing of NTN networks and promote widespread adoption of NTN applications.

6G communication to begin in 2024, with satellite communication taking center stage

• 6G standardization begins around 2024-2025, with initial technologies expected by 2027-2028. This enables novel applications like Reconfigurable Intelligent Surfaces (RIS), terahertz bands, Optical Wireless Communication (OWC), NTN for high-altitude comms, and immersive Extended Reality (XR) experiences.
• Low-orbit satellites will play a key role in 6G as its standards solidify, peaking around the time of 6G commercialization. The use of drones for 6G communication and environmental sensing is also set to surge in the 6G era.

Innovative entrants drive cost optimization for Micro LED technology in 2024

• In 2023, the focus in Micro LED display technology is on cost reduction through chip downsizing, aiming for at least a 20-25% annual reduction. A hybrid transfer approach, combining stamping and laser bonding, is gaining attention for efficient mass production.
• Micro LED holds potential in micro-projection displays for transparent AR lenses. Challenges include achieving ultra-high PPI with 5 µm or smaller chips, particularly with red LEDs’ low efficiency. Various innovative approaches, such as InGan-based red LEDs and vertically stacked RGB LEDs.

Intensifying competition in AR/VR micro-display technologies

• Increasing AR/VR headset demand drives demand for ultra-high PPI near-eye displays, with Micro OLED technology at the forefront, poised for broader adoption.
• Challenges in brightness and efficiency impact Micro OLED displays and their dominance in the head-mounted display market depends on the development of various micro-display technologies.

Advancements in material and component technologies are propelling the commercialization of gallium oxide

• Gallium oxide (Ga₂O₃) is gaining prominence for next-gen power semiconductor devices due to its potential in high-voltage, high-temperature, and high-frequency applications in EVs, electrical grids, and aerospace.
• The industry is already producing 4-inch gallium oxide mono-crystals and advancing Schottky diode and transistor fabrication processes, with the first Schottky diode products expected by 2024.

Solid-state batteries poised to reshape the EV battery landscape over the next decade

• Major automakers and battery manufacturers are investing in solid-state and semi-solid-state battery technologies, aiming for a new cycle of technological iteration by 2024.
• After Li-ion batteries, sodium-ion batteries, with lower energy density, are suitable for budget-friendly EVs, and hydrogen fuel cells offer long-range and zero emissions, primarily for heavy-duty commercial vehicles, with widespread adoption expected after 2025, despite challenges.

BEVs in 2024 rely on power conversion efficiency, driving range, and charging efficiency

• Automakers are optimizing battery pack structures and material ratios to increase energy density and driving range. Solid-state batteries, with high energy density, may see limited installations in vehicles as semi-solid batteries in 2H23.
• The 800V platform will enable high-power fast charging, leading to the expansion of high-power charging stations. AI advancements are driving EVs toward advanced autonomous driving, with Tesla’s Dojo supercomputer investing in neural network training to maintain its position in the intelligent driving market.

Green solutions with AI simulations emerging as a linchpin for renewable energy and decarbonized manufacturing

• Under the background of optimizing energy consumption, creating interconnected data ecosystems, and visualizing energy flow and consumption. Carbon auditing tools and AI are key for organizations aiming to reduce carbon emissions and enhance sustainability.
• The IEA predicts global renewable energy generation to reach 4,500 GW by 2024, driven by policy support, rising fossil fuel prices, and energy crises. The adoption of AI-driven smart technologies in peripheral systems for stable energy generation.

OLED’s expansion will across various applications driven by the innovation of foldable phones

• OLED folding phones are improving in design by using lightweight materials, innovative hinge structures, and cost-reduction efforts to approach the thickness and weight of traditional smartphones.
• In the IT sector, industry players like Samsung, BOE Technology, JDI, and Visionox are making significant investments and developments in OLED technology to expand into various markets. Anticipated advancements in technology and materials are expected to increase OLED market penetration by 2025.

Swedish telecom giant Telia, along with Nokia and MediaTek, successfully completed 5G Redcap field testing in Finland. During this endeavor, Telia utilized its Finnish base stations and concurrently deployed a 5G Standalone Network (SA) core on MediaTek’s 5G Redcap testing platform.

The test also included mobility sections to ensure signal transmission. The successful test of 5G Redcap field in cooperation with Nokia and other partners opens the doors for the extensive adoption of various low-power network (LPN) applications, including wearables and industrial sensors in the 5G network.

TrendForce’s Insights:

1. Telecoms Actively Validate 5G Redcap in Field Test

With the aim of increasing overall application of global 5G market penetration and raising the average revenue per user (ARPU), international telecom operators have initiated 5G Redcap field validation. Notably, Thailand’s leading telecom, Advanced Info Service (AIS), collaborated with the global equipment supplier Huawei in September 2023 to successfully complete Thailand’s inaugural 5G Redcap commercial test.

The test involved conducting peak data transfer rate measurements, mobility rate assessments, and validation of coexistence between enhanced Mobile Broadband (eMBB) terminal devices (UE) and Redcap across a variety of 5G Redcap commercial terminals operating in 700-2600MHz frequency bands.

Taking a closer look at China’s major telecommunications companies, China Unicom is leveraging Huawei’s extensive equipment deployment capabilities. The incorporation with Unicom’s 5G RedCap module into surveillance cameras at premier 5G Smart Commercial Park, Zhejiang, China. This integration facilitated 4K high-definition image recognition and enabled facial recognition and monitoring of vehicle violations within the park via Multi-access Edge Computing (MEC) platforms.

In summary, China’s major telecom operators have initiated substantial 5G Redcap commercial deployments and have enthusiastically adopted key IoT applications such as industrial sensors and video surveillance. The scale of these deployments highlights that, driven by 5G Redcap policies, China’s telecom companies have identified viable scenario applications through intensive field deployments.

In contrast, telecom operators in other regional markets have conducted only a limited number of field validation. They are cautiously assessing the effectiveness of 5G Redcap in the market, resulting in a relatively slower pace of 5G Redcap development.

2. Key to Expanding 5G Redcap: Strengthen Standalone Network Coverage

Despite the initiation of small-scale 5G Redcap field validations by telecom companies, the current penetration rate of standalone networks (SA) still lags behind that of Non-Standalone networks (NSA). This disparity restricts the scale of 5G Redcap development.

International telecom operators recognize that the adoption of 5G Redcap, known for its low cost and rapid user acquisition, can effectively boost 5G NR penetration rates, thus potentially accelerating the deployment of standalone networks and expanding the commercial scale of 5G Redcap.

Despite facing sanctions from the United States, Huawei continues to advance its 5G technology by gradually reducing reliance on American components in its base stations. Meanwhile, the White House is rallying its allies to block the adoption of Huawei’s 5G equipment. However, these challenges haven’t deterred Huawei’s commitment to research and development.

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As the United States intensifies its chip embargo against China, the Chinese Academy of Engineering (CAE) has released an annual report for technological development. This report serves as a strategic guide to navigate the embargo and promote autonomous technological growth comprehensively.
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On September 13th, Huawei and Xiaomi announced a global patent cross-licensing agreement that covers communication technologies, including 5G.

Huawei stated, “We are pleased to have reached this licensing agreement with Xiaomi. This agreement once again underscores the industry’s recognition of Huawei’s contributions in the field of communication standards and allows us to enhance our future research investment in mobile communication technologies.”

Xiaomi expressed, “We are delighted to have entered into a patent cross-licensing agreement with Huawei, which fully demonstrates the mutual recognition and respect for each other’s intellectual property rights. Xiaomi will continue to uphold its values regarding intellectual property, respecting intellectual property rights, seeking win-win, and building a long-term sustainable intellectual property partnership to promote technology for the benefit of a broader audience.”

Previously, on August 25th, Huawei and Ericsson announced a long-term global patent cross-licensing agreement, covering essential patents related to a wide range of standards, including 3/4/5G cellular technologies within the framework of standards organizations such as 3GPP, ITU, IEEE, IETF, and others. This agreement includes both communication network infrastructure and terminal device sales. According to the agreement, both parties license each other to use their respective standard patent technologies worldwide.

In addition to Xiaomi and Ericsson, Huawei has signed nearly 200 bilateral licensing agreements, and over 350 companies have obtained Huawei patent licenses.

According to official data, as of the end of 2022, Huawei holds over 120,000 valid authorized patents worldwide, with a significant presence in China, Europe, the Americas, Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa. Huawei holds over 40,000 patents in both China and Europe, as well as more than 22,000 patents in the United States.

(Photo credit: Xiaomi)