A global surge in data center expansion is observed in 2023, emphasizing a notable trend in the rise of Green Data Centers (Green DCs). Major players embarking on the construction of large-scale data centers encounter challenges. Power constraints affecting capacity growth, mounting pressure to enhance IT efficiency, combined with the continual increase in energy costs, amplify operational and construction difficulties in data centers.

TrendForce’s Insights:

1. Prioritizing energy efficiency and conservation in data centers

Modern enterprises heavily rely on data centers, but the associated energy costs are substantial. The market is expected to grow by over 25% from 2023 to 2030. Current strategies for improving energy efficiency encompass (1) reducing the energy consumption of IT equipment, (2) minimizing losses in distribution devices and uninterruptible power supplies, (3) implementing airflow management to optimize cooling, and (4) optimizing cooling and humidification systems through Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC).

2. Global shift to net-zero carbon emissions and the rise of low-carbon Green DCs

The construction of Green DCs with lower carbon is becoming a pivotal approach for major players, especially in the design of IT infrastructure for server rooms. This includes components such as network routers, switches, storage systems, firewalls, server racks, and redundant power supplies, all of which are subject to energy-saving requirements.

Key practices involve adopting liquid cooling and energy-efficient core IT equipment to achieve improved energy efficiency. Certification standards, such as Green Mark DC Platinum Certification, play a crucial role. The TIA-942 standard, by TIA and ANSI, distinguishing data centers into Tiers I through IV, often requires compliance with certifications like ISO 20000 and ISO 27001. Additionally, the international standard ISO/IEC 22237 lays the groundwork for globally planning, constructing, and operating data centers based on shared principles in the future.
(Image: TIA)

In TrendForce’s latest solar energy pricing, it is revealed that upstream polysilicon and wafer transactions have reached a standstill, while downstream cell and module prices continue to decline.

• Polysilicon

Polysilicon prices continue to decline throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 70/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 68/KG and N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 75/KG.

In terms of trading, this week has shown a slight improvement compared to the stagnation of the previous week. Some small orders have been placed, but the majority of companies are still in the negotiation process. Additionally, there are ongoing discussions about transaction prices for polysilicon and crystal pulling.

Examining the price trends, there’s a notable divergence between leading manufacturers and second-tier manufacturers, with the current prices approaching the cost threshold for the latter and older capacity.

When we analyze the supply and demand dynamics, it becomes evident that as polysilicon prices continue to decline, downstream manufacturers are considering production cuts, and new production capacity might face the challenge of running at a loss right after starting operations.

Moreover, considering the projected oversupply in the future and the potential for prices to hit rock bottom, some manufacturers have realized that the profits from new production capacity may differ significantly from their expectations, prompting them to adjust their production schedules.

However, in the short term, polysilicon output is showing a month-on-month growth trend this quarter. As downstream demand decreases, polysilicon prices will likely continue to face pressure. Overall, this week has seen a decline in quoted polysilicon prices, and the price gap between N-type and P-type polysilicon continues to narrow.

• Wafer

The prices of wafer have still reduced throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 wafer is RMB 2.30/Pc, while G12 wafer is priced at RMB 3.30/Pc. The current cell prices are causing significant losses in the cell business, leading to a substantial reduction in activation rates.

The overall market turnover is currently sluggish. Additionally, the quoted prices only reflect the trend of declining wafer prices and may not accurately represent the actual transaction prices for spot goods.

On the supply side, wafer prices have continued to decline over the past two weeks. If the prices of different types of wafers keep dropping, manufacturers may find themselves in a situation where their costs exceed their selling prices.

Consequently, wafer production schedules have seen a significant reduction, forcing some second and third-tier manufacturers to maintain OEM business for meager profits. The current wafer inventory level has decreased to 1.9-2.1 billion pieces, and there are indications that prices are reaching a bottom in the market.

On the demand side, downstream cell manufacturers are gradually reducing their production schedules, and inventory issues have not been effectively resolved. As a result, cell manufacturers are becoming more cautious when it comes to purchasing wafers. This week, wafer prices have continued to decline, but the rate of decline will narrow with cost support.

However, considering the price pressure imposed by downstream consumers, their high inventory levels, and other factors, wafer prices have yet to stabilize and are likely to continue falling in the future.

• Cell

Cell prices have still declined this week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 cell is RMB 0.48/W, while G12 cell is priced at RMB 0.52/W. The price of M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.49/W.

On the supply side, current cell inventory has remained high for more than seven days. Consequently, facing pressure from both the elevated inventory levels and downstream module manufacturers, cell prices have experienced a decline.

The current price of M10 P-type cells stands at 0.48 yuan per watt, which is approaching the production cost of leading integrated manufacturers. The reduction in cell production is the current scenario.

However, the shipment pressures haven’t been alleviated, and the price gap between N-type and P-type cells has narrowed, putting both types at risk of operating at a loss due to costs exceeding their prices. On the demand side, the domestic peak season for centralized cell procurement has concluded, and there has been no significant uptick in demand in overseas markets or the distributed PV sector.

As a result, the demand for cells has weakened. With module prices also under pressure, module manufacturers are inclined to push down cell prices. Although there has been some improvement in the rate of decline for cells this week, the accumulation of cell inventory, falling upstream material prices, and sluggish downstream demand continue to exert constant pressure on cell prices.

• Module

Module prices have gone down slightly throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 1.08/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 1.11/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 1.09/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 1.12/W.

On the supply side, module prices are persistently decreasing and have come close to the cost price of integrated manufacturers. Specialized module manufacturers, in response to module prices falling below their cost, have had to reduce their production rates to avoid losses. This is evident from the reduced demand for various auxiliary materials associated with module production.

On the demand side, the primary driver of demand continues to be large domestic projects, whereas overseas demand has not shown any significant increase. The overseas market is still working through its high inventory. In domestic bidding projects, there’s a noticeable shift toward an increased proportion of N-type modules, indicating a faster transition in demand toward N-type technologies.

In the third round of centralized procurement for PV modules by Huadian Group, the quoted price stands at 0.9933 yuan per watt. In the same month, the bidding price for modules in the centralized procurement tender by CHN Energy is 0.945 yuan per watt, marking a record low within a single month.

This price trend underscores the inevitable intense competition within the module sector, as excess production capacity is evident throughout the entire industry chain. This week, module prices have continued their descent. In summary, it’s probable that module prices will remain volatile in the future, especially considering that bidding prices for modules are swiftly approaching the 1 yuan mark.

Read more

• PV Industry Supply Chain Price Update

According to EnergyTrend, the New Energy Research Center under TrendForce, as of October 23, 2023, the prices for various photovoltaic materials and components have experienced changes:

For Polysilicon:

• Mono Recycled Polysilicon in RMB (Renminbi) dropped to RMB 72/KG, a decrease of 10%.
• Mono Grade Polysilicon in RMB decreased from RMB 78/KG to RMB 70/KG, a 10.26% decline.
• N-Type Polysilicon was quoted at RMB 78/KG, with a minor change of -15.22%.
• Polysilicon outside China was priced at US$20.55/KG.

For Wafer:

• M10 Mono Wafer in RMB were quoted at RMB 2.4/Pc, marking an 11.11% decrease; the latest pricing in USD was US$0.299/Pc, down by 11.01% from the previous US$0.336/Pc.
• G12 Mono Wafer in RMB were priced at RMB 3.4/Pc, showing a 5.56% decrease; the latest pricing in USD was US$0.422/Pc, a 5.59% drop.
• Since October 23rd, new N-Type M10 Mono Wafer was quoted at RMB 2.5/Pc.

For Cell:

• M10 Mono PERC Cell in RMB was priced at RMB 0.51/W, marking a 10.53% decrease; the USD pricing was US$0.065/W, down by 11.64% from the previous US$0.073/W.
• G12 Mono PERC Cell in RMB was quoted at RMB 0.53/W, representing a significant decrease of 10.17% from RMB 0.59/W; the latest USD price was US$0.067/W, showing an 11.84% decline.
• M10 TOPCon Cells in RMB decreased from RMB 0.6/W to RMB 0.52/W, down by 13.33%.

For Modules:

• The price for 182mm facial Mono PERC Module was RMB 1.15/W, a 4.17% reduction from the previous week.
• Both 210mm facial Mono PERC Module and 182mm facial Mono PERC Module were quoted at RMB 1.16/W, with a change of 4.13%.
• The price for 210mm facial Mono PERC Module was RMB 1.17/W.

PV Glass prices were reported as follows:

• 2.0mm Coating was priced at RMB 20/㎡.
• 3.2mm Coating was priced at RMB 28/㎡.

Please note that this information is sourced from EnergyTrend and should be credited if used or referenced.

…

With the approach to the end of 2023, TrendForce revealed the tech trends in every sector, apparently, AI continues as the main focus to decide the direction of how the tech supply chain will be in the next few years, here are the seeings:

CSPs increase AI investment, driving a 38% growth in AI server shipments by 2024

• CSPs increase AI investment, fueling a 38% growth in AI server shipments by 2024.
• Major CSPs like Microsoft, Google, and AWS are driving this growth due to the rising popularity of AI applications, pushing AI server shipments to 1.2 million units in 2023.

HBM3e set to drive an annual increase of 172% in HBM revenue

• Major memory suppliers are set to introduce HBM3e with faster speeds (8 Gbps) to enhance the performance of AI accelerator chips in 2024–2025.
• HBM integration is becoming common among GPU manufacturers like NVIDIA and AMD, and it is expected that HBM will significantly contribute to memory suppliers’ revenues in 2024, with an annual growth rate of 172%.

Rising demand for advanced packaging in 2024, the emergence of 3D IC technology

• Leading semiconductor firms like TSMC, Samsung, and Intel are emphasizing advanced packaging technology’s importance in boosting chip performance, conserving space, reduce power usage, and minimize latency. They’re establishing 3D IC research centers in Japan to underscore this role.
• Generative AI is driving increased demand for 2.5D packaging tech, integrating computing chips and memory with a silicon interposer layer. Additionally, 3D packaging solutions like TSMC’s SoIC, Samsung’s X-Cube, and Intel’s Foveros.

NTN is set to begin with small-scale commercial tests, broader applications of this technology are on the way in 2024

• Collaboration between satellite operators, semiconductor firms, telecom operators, and smartphone makers is growing due to increased satellite deployments by operators. This collaboration focuses on mobile satellite communication applications and bidirectional data transmission under specific conditions.
• Major semiconductor manufacturers are ramping up efforts in satellite communication chips, leading top smartphone manufacturers to integrate satellite communication into high-end phones using the SoC model, which is expected to drive small-scale commercial testing of NTN networks and promote widespread adoption of NTN applications.

6G communication to begin in 2024, with satellite communication taking center stage

• 6G standardization begins around 2024-2025, with initial technologies expected by 2027-2028. This enables novel applications like Reconfigurable Intelligent Surfaces (RIS), terahertz bands, Optical Wireless Communication (OWC), NTN for high-altitude comms, and immersive Extended Reality (XR) experiences.
• Low-orbit satellites will play a key role in 6G as its standards solidify, peaking around the time of 6G commercialization. The use of drones for 6G communication and environmental sensing is also set to surge in the 6G era.

Innovative entrants drive cost optimization for Micro LED technology in 2024

• In 2023, the focus in Micro LED display technology is on cost reduction through chip downsizing, aiming for at least a 20-25% annual reduction. A hybrid transfer approach, combining stamping and laser bonding, is gaining attention for efficient mass production.
• Micro LED holds potential in micro-projection displays for transparent AR lenses. Challenges include achieving ultra-high PPI with 5 µm or smaller chips, particularly with red LEDs’ low efficiency. Various innovative approaches, such as InGan-based red LEDs and vertically stacked RGB LEDs.

Intensifying competition in AR/VR micro-display technologies

• Increasing AR/VR headset demand drives demand for ultra-high PPI near-eye displays, with Micro OLED technology at the forefront, poised for broader adoption.
• Challenges in brightness and efficiency impact Micro OLED displays and their dominance in the head-mounted display market depends on the development of various micro-display technologies.

Advancements in material and component technologies are propelling the commercialization of gallium oxide

• Gallium oxide (Ga₂O₃) is gaining prominence for next-gen power semiconductor devices due to its potential in high-voltage, high-temperature, and high-frequency applications in EVs, electrical grids, and aerospace.
• The industry is already producing 4-inch gallium oxide mono-crystals and advancing Schottky diode and transistor fabrication processes, with the first Schottky diode products expected by 2024.

Solid-state batteries poised to reshape the EV battery landscape over the next decade

• Major automakers and battery manufacturers are investing in solid-state and semi-solid-state battery technologies, aiming for a new cycle of technological iteration by 2024.
• After Li-ion batteries, sodium-ion batteries, with lower energy density, are suitable for budget-friendly EVs, and hydrogen fuel cells offer long-range and zero emissions, primarily for heavy-duty commercial vehicles, with widespread adoption expected after 2025, despite challenges.

BEVs in 2024 rely on power conversion efficiency, driving range, and charging efficiency

• Automakers are optimizing battery pack structures and material ratios to increase energy density and driving range. Solid-state batteries, with high energy density, may see limited installations in vehicles as semi-solid batteries in 2H23.
• The 800V platform will enable high-power fast charging, leading to the expansion of high-power charging stations. AI advancements are driving EVs toward advanced autonomous driving, with Tesla’s Dojo supercomputer investing in neural network training to maintain its position in the intelligent driving market.

Green solutions with AI simulations emerging as a linchpin for renewable energy and decarbonized manufacturing

• Under the background of optimizing energy consumption, creating interconnected data ecosystems, and visualizing energy flow and consumption. Carbon auditing tools and AI are key for organizations aiming to reduce carbon emissions and enhance sustainability.
• The IEA predicts global renewable energy generation to reach 4,500 GW by 2024, driven by policy support, rising fossil fuel prices, and energy crises. The adoption of AI-driven smart technologies in peripheral systems for stable energy generation.

OLED’s expansion will across various applications driven by the innovation of foldable phones

• OLED folding phones are improving in design by using lightweight materials, innovative hinge structures, and cost-reduction efforts to approach the thickness and weight of traditional smartphones.
• In the IT sector, industry players like Samsung, BOE Technology, JDI, and Visionox are making significant investments and developments in OLED technology to expand into various markets. Anticipated advancements in technology and materials are expected to increase OLED market penetration by 2025.