As the global competition in electric vehicle power batteries intensifies, Chinese battery giant CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd.) has been unveiling its new generation of automotive power batteries. Notably, during the “2023 Chery Tech Day” event, multiple batteries from CATL were showcased, with a strong focus on their second-generation sodium-ion battery.

According to a report by “mydrivers,” although several of CATL’s batteries were showcased during Chery’s event, including the Shenxing Superfast Charging Battery, Qilin Battery, and Sodium-ion batteries. It is set to be the debut choice for Chery vehicles.

Polysilicon:

Polysilicon prices have remained stable throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 83/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 81/KG and N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 93/KG.

On the supply side, some of the production capacity that was impacted by the accident has been restored, and the growth rate of new capacity has accelerated. As a result, this month’s actual output has seen a significant increase, marking the first time the growth rate has hit double digits. This has led to a substantial shift in the supply and demand dynamics of polysilicon.

On the demand side, specialized crystal pulling manufacturers have reduced their activation rates, exerting pressure on upstream polysilicon manufacturers. These crystal pulling manufacturers are currently focusing on depleting their accumulated polysilicon inventory.

Consequently, the forecast of a decline in polysilicon prices in the upstream segment is on the verge of becoming a reality, and crystal pulling manufacturers, in general, are delaying their procurement demands. Furthermore, the marginal increase in polysilicon is expected by the end of this month, while crystal pulling manufacturers still have sufficient inventory to consume throughout the month.

Meanwhile, the market prices of downstream cells and modules continue to remain below their production costs, and the negative signs of declining polysilicon prices are increasingly apparent. This week, the turnover of polysilicon has been slow, with prices holding steady. However, certain events, such as some second-tier polysilicon enterprises reducing their prices for N-type polysilicon, indicate that a downward trend in polysilicon prices is looming.

Wafer:

The prices of wafer have still reduced throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 wafer is RMB 2.78/Pc, while G12 wafer is priced at RMB 3.80/Pc.
On the supply side, currently, the inventory of wafer enterprises stands in the range of 2.4-2.6 billion pieces. Their production schedules and inventory for this month significantly surpass downstream demand. Consequently, wafer manufacturers face immense pressure to deplete their inventory. Specialized wafer manufacturers are clearly indicating their intention to reduce production, with some of them having already commenced this step to manage their inventory.

On the demand side, there hasn’t been a notable increase in cell procurement demand. Nevertheless, owing to diminishing profits and mounting inventory pressure, some professional cell manufacturers are contemplating reducing their production. This week, wafer prices have uniformly dropped, maintaining a price gap of approximately 0.1 yuan per watt between leading and smaller manufacturers. With dwindling downstream purchasing demand and limited cost support from the upstream segment, it’s anticipated that wafer prices will persistently decline, making it challenging to arrest this downward trend.

Cell:

Cell prices have still declined slightly this week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 cell is RMB 0.60/W, while G12 cell is priced at RMB 0.66/W. The price of M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.65/W.

On the supply side, cell manufacturers did not plan to reduce their production before the long weekend, leading to an increase in overall inventory. Currently, cell market prices are hovering close to production costs. Some specialized cell manufacturers are now contemplating reducing production and focusing on depleting their existing inventory.

On the demand side, the operational rates of specialized module manufacturers have not improved, and cell prices have not reached their lowest point. Downstream consumers have adopted a bearish stance, and their purchasing strategies involve buying products with increasing prices rather than those with declining prices. Consequently, they are postponing their purchasing demands. Assessing specific cell models, the inventory of P-type modules in the downstream segment is high, and the demand for domestic centralized projects remains stagnant. As a result, there is insufficient momentum for module manufacturers to improve their production scheduling, and the demand for P-type cells is weak.

When it comes to N-type cells, there is a substantial difference in demand between high-efficiency and low-efficiency cells. The supply of low to medium efficiency cells has increased significantly, but the market’s receptiveness to them is low. Consequently, their inventory is growing, whereas the demand for high-efficiency N-type cells remains positive. However, in the latter half of the year, most orders are for P-type cells, which creates increased shipment pressure even for high-efficiency N-type cells.

This week, cell prices have been erratic, but overall, they are declining. There is currently no support from the cost side, and with weak customer demand, there is still room for further reductions in cell prices.

Modules:

Module prices have declined slightly throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 1.20/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 1.21/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 1.21/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 1.22/W.

On the supply side, the shipment volumes of module manufacturers have exhibited significant divergence. The market price for modules has dropped even below the production costs for specialized module manufacturers, prompting them to drastically reduce their production. Despite weak current demand, top-tier leading manufacturers are maintaining high operational rates and are even undercutting prices to secure more orders, squeezing the market share of smaller manufacturers.

On the demand side, overseas inventory levels are elevated, and as module prices continue to decrease, customers are closely monitoring market dynamics. Furthermore, there are rumors that the European Union may impose trade barriers to support local photovoltaic manufacturers. This has instilled panic among module manufacturers, who are likely to reduce module prices to clear their inventory.

Stimulated by the commencement of ground projects, domestic demand for modules has improved. However, industry chain prices are still on a downward trajectory, and domestic customers are increasingly concerned about further price declines. Given that current module inventory can still meet short-term delivery demands, the demand for modules from domestic manufacturers is not expected to surge in the short run. This week, module prices declined, with G12 P-type modules dropping by 1.63% and M10 P-type cells falling by 0.83%. However, the downward trend persists, and there is still room for further price declines.

Source to China Times, due to weak demand and inventory piling up, the prices of a key chemical raw material, lithium carbonate, have recently been on a declining trend. Since the launch of lithium carbonate futures on the mainland on July 21, in just over two months, the price of lithium has fallen by nearly 100,000 CNY, marking a 39% decrease. In late September, lithium carbonate futures prices briefly dropped below 150,000 CNY per ton, reaching 145,000 CNY, marking a new low since their introduction.

Market analysts suggest that the current price of lithium carbonate futures on the mainland is around 150,000 yuan per ton. In the short term, prices are susceptible to the impact of supply contraction. While there may be some upward momentum following the sharp decline, the strength of the rebound is limited.

According to STCN from China, in the spot market on October 4, the benchmark price for battery-grade lithium carbonate was 175,000 CNY per ton, showing a monthly decline of over 20% compared to the 224,000 CNY per ton at the beginning of September. The benchmark price for industrial-grade lithium carbonate on the same day was 161,000 CNY per ton, reflecting a decrease of 23.33% by MoM.

Ruida Futures stated that from a fundamental perspective, the current situation of relatively ample lithium carbonate supply has not changed for now. With the recovery of operating rates in 2Q23, demand has not met expectations, leading to the inventory kept piling up, and continuous price declines.

Despite facing sanctions from the United States, Huawei continues to advance its 5G technology by gradually reducing reliance on American components in its base stations. Meanwhile, the White House is rallying its allies to block the adoption of Huawei’s 5G equipment. However, these challenges haven’t deterred Huawei’s commitment to research and development.

…

According to a recent report by itdcw, several Chinese new energy companies unveiled ambitious overseas expansion plans during the last week of September, with the highest investment commitment reaching almost a billion dollars.

This development comes as global demand for batteries skyrockets, driven by the rapid growth of the overseas new energy automotive and energy storage industries. Chinese companies in the new energy industry chain are strategically positioning themselves across the globe to better serve the expanding oversea markets.

Five Companies Announce Overseas Expansion in a Week

The hustle week could tracked back to a significant announcement from Ningbo Shanshan Co., LTD on September 27th. Their intention to establish a project company in Finland, aiming to invest in the construction of an integrated base capable of producing 100,000 tons of lithium-ion battery negative electrode materials annually. The total investment for this venture is not expected to exceed 1.28 billion euros.

On the very same day, a subsidiary of Lopal Technology signed a MOU with LG Energy Solution, Ltd. This agreement outlines their collaborative venture to operate a cathode material factory in Indonesia, further expanding the global footprint of Chinese battery companies.

XTC New Energy Materials also made a significant move on September 26th, announcing their plans to establish Joint Venture in France. This strategic collaboration with the French company Orano is set to build a production line with an annual output of 40,000 tons of ternary cathode materials, bolstering their presence in the European market.

Not to be outdone, CATL unveiled their investment plans in Indonesia on September 25th. Their vision includes the construction of Indonesia’s first project for the production of 30,000 tons of high-nickel power battery ternary precursor materials in the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park, Central Sulawesi Province. The total investment for this endeavor is approximately 109.6 million RMB.

Additionally, South Korea’s LG Chem is gearing up with Huayou Cobalt on September 24th. Together, they are planning to establish an electric vehicle battery material factory in Morocco, slated to commence production in 2026. Their target is an annual output of 50,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials.

Not Random: Calculated Choice to Overseas Moves for Expansion

China’s surplus battery production capacity and skyrocketing prices in recent times have left the battery industry chain market sluggish. This has prompted companies to explore overseas markets as a natural expansion strategy. The EU’s new battery regulations and the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act have set new standards and prerequisites for Chinese battery industry chain enterprises venturing abroad.

Europe’s appeal stems from its stringent EU environmental regulations, which have been pushing for the development of electric vehicles. Hungary’s strategic location has positioned it as a major export production hub for renowned automakers like Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi. Its prime geographical location and excellent transportation links make it an ideal gateway to the entire European market.

Indonesia’s selection is attributed to its abundant resources, particularly nickel, of which it holds a quarter of the world’s reserves. Moreover, Indonesia ranks high in global cobalt production. This makes it an attractive destination for battery companies and upstream material enterprises, ensuring a stable supply of essential raw materials.

South Korea is appealing primarily due to its opportunities for collaboration with local companies. Battery material enterprises often find the initial capital requirements and other aspects of independent overseas expansion daunting. With recent international policy changes, Chinese counterparts are favoring collaborative approaches to establish a presence in South Korea.

However, it’s crucial to acknowledge that expanding abroad, while offering access to more overseas market resources, also amplifies risks and pressures borne by these enterprises. This strategic move will test their adaptability and resilience in navigating the complexities of global markets.

In summary, Chinese battery companies are aggressively expanding into overseas markets to meet the surging global demand for batteries, with Europe, Indonesia, and South Korea serving as key strategic locations. While the challenges are significant, these companies are poised to make a significant impact on the global battery industry.

Explore More

• Global Lithium Production Forecast to Reach 1.21 Million Tons LCE in 2023, US Lithium Producer ALB Leads with a 17% Market Share, Says TrendForce
• TrendForce: Global Li-ion Battery Industry Chain Market Supply and Demand Report in 2023

(Image and Source: Signing Ceremony between XTC and Orano – © Orano / Cyril Crespeau)