Volkswagen Group has reported its sales for the first three quarters of 2023, and the EV segment is showing remarkable growth, with a 45% increase compared to the same period last year. The group has sold 531,500 pure electric vehicles during this time, marking a significant step toward its transition to a zero-carbon, all-electric future.

The global share of EV sales for Volkswagen Group has grown to 7.9%, reaching 9% in the third quarter. If this trend continues, the annual share of pure electric vehicles is expected to fall within the range of 8% to 10% this year, with a stable 10% or more expected next year.

Europe remains the stronghold for Volkswagen’s electric vehicles, with a 61% growth compared to last year, selling a total of 341,000 EVs. In the US market, there has been a 74% growth, with 50,000 pure electric vehicles sold, while the Chinese market has seen a modest 4% growth, with sales totaling 117,000.

However, similar to Tesla, Volkswagen faces challenges with declining profitability despite increasing delivery numbers, primarily due to intense price competition. The operating profit has decreased by 7%, accumulating €16.2 billion, which means that despite an 8% growth in overall vehicle deliveries (regardless of the powertrain), with 6.8 million vehicles sold, profitability has remained nearly unchanged.

Volkswagen’s primary focus for the future is to continuously optimize cost control, emphasize its system adjustment plan, and develop cross-brand collaborative strategies to improve profitability margins.

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• [Insights] Volkswagen Unveils Latest Tiguan PHEV with a 100 km Electric-only Driving Range
• Catching Up on Tesla, See The Big Rise of Chinese Automotive Brands

(Photo credit: Volkswagen)

Volkswagen recently unveiled its extensively redesigned Tiguan lineup. This vehicle, built on the MQB Evo platform, offers a range of powertrain options, including gasoline, diesel, mild-hybrid, and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) variants. Notably, the PHEV model features a 1.5-liter TSI evo 2 turbocharged engine and a 19.7 kWh battery pack, providing an impressive electric-only driving range of 100 km with an efficiency of around 5.1 km/kWh.

TrendForce’s Insights:

1. Addressing Range Anxiety: PHEVs Gain Traction Among Consumers and Automakers

PHEVs offer a dual-power output system, primarily relying on traditional combustion engines for long-distance driving and electric power from the battery pack for shorter trips. These PHEVs feature larger battery packs than hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and can be recharged. Recently, PHEVs, including Volkswagen’s Tiguan, have surpassed a 100 km electric range milestone. Other models, such as the BMW 5 Series, Honda Accord e:PHEV, and Changan Oshan Z6, have also achieved similar electric ranges. Toyota even announced its focus on PHEV development, with a goal of reaching an average electric range of up to 200 km.

As calculated by TrendForce, the PHEV market share has grown from 9% in 2015 to 21% in 2023, with an average battery pack capacity increase from 15 kWh in 2018 to 20 kWh in 2023. While BEVs remain the primary choice in the electric vehicle market, manufacturers continue to introduce PHEV models due to consumer range anxiety and the desire to maximize the remaining value of traditional combustion engines.

2. Overcoming PHEV Challenges: Charging Infrastructure and Range Improvements

Most PHEVs are adapted from existing internal combustion engine (ICE) platforms, incorporating both ICE and electric power components. The complexity and higher number of components in PHEVs may impact overall vehicle efficiency, requiring additional maintenance or part replacement, which could be costly for consumers.

Consumers are well aware of the drawbacks of PHEVs, yet the steadily growing market share indicates that range anxiety remains a major concern. PHEVs, offering the comfort of a gasoline engine alongside electric capabilities, outweigh their inherent flaws when it comes to reducing range anxiety. Besides, Geely’s Zeekr hybrid series can incorporate a smart driving system with a centralized domain controller architecture, challenging the notion that traditional gasoline vehicle platforms can’t support advanced autonomous driving.

In conclusion, with the push from both the market and automakers, PHEV technology is continually advancing and is no longer considered a “transitional solution” as it was in the past. While inherent flaws still exist, consumers are more accepting of these drawbacks compared to their concerns about range anxiety. To completely eradicate range anxiety, the ratio of public charging stations to vehicles needs to shift from the current 7:1 to 2:1 or even 1:1. Alternatively, matching the range of internal combustion engine vehicles is crucial. However, both of these goals are not likely to be achieved until around 2030. Until then, PHEVs will maintain a significant presence in the market.

According to the latest data from TrendForce, car sales across 37 regional markets (as indicated in the notes under the table above) in August totaled 5.55 million vehicles, representing an increase of nearly 1% compared with July. This modest growth can be attributed to the upcoming launch of new vehicle models by automakers for the fall season. Some consumers were anticipating price reductions on existing models, while others were waiting for the release of new ones. Therefore, it is expected that car sales will be concentrated in the month of September.

The rankings of the top 10 car brands for August remained the same compared with July. The top three brands, in order, were Toyota, Volkswagen, and Honda. In August, the Japanese car market experienced a seasonal slowdown, leading to a drop in sales for most Japanese automakers. Compared with the previous month, Toyota posted a decline of 2.6%, whereas Honda posted a slight increase of 0.8%.

Chinese automaker BYD surpassed Ford to become the fourth-largest global car brand in terms of car sales for August. Despite the weakening demand in the domestic car market, BYD was not significantly affected as all of its offerings are new energy vehicles. BYD saw a 5% increase in car sales compared with July and was just 0.1 percentage point behind Honda in market share, which held the third position. Japanese automakers can still rely on demand from regional markets such as Southeast Asia to drive their vehicle sales. Therefore, accelerating the pace of overseas expansion is a key challenge for BYD if it seeks to surpass Honda on a global scale.

As for Ford, its performance in August showed a contraction in sales in Europe and the US. With a decline of 6.7% compared with the previous month, Ford dropped to sixth place.

While the launch of new vehicle models this fall is expected to boost new car sales, several factors continue to influence regional markets. These factors include the ongoing strike by the United Auto Workers in the US and Russia’s announcement on September 21st regarding restrictions on the exportation of gasoline and diesel. Russia’s actions could once again impact Europe’s energy supply and lead to a surge in oil prices. Such development could also disrupt governments’ efforts to ease inflation. If inflation heats up again, the consumer market might weaken further, and central banks could be compelled to raise interest rates once more.

China is currently stimulating domestic demand through various policies, but abnormal weather conditions in various parts of the country since the summer have affected local sales. In general, TrendForce believes that as the fourth quarter approaches, automakers will do their utmost to ensure smooth production, meet orders promptly, and spur sales during the year-end holiday season. They will strive to minimize the impact of the reduction in demand visibility caused by the latest economic turbulence.

According to the news from Mydrivers.com, BYD has reached a groundbreaking milestone, producing its 5 millionth new energy vehicle. The company asserts that China now possesses critical new energy vehicle technology and a robust industry chain.

BYD contends that a globally recognized brand stands as a vital hallmark of an automotive powerhouse. Throughout the annals of automotive industrial history, every automotive giant has harbored a world-renowned brand. For instance, the United States boasts General Motors, Ford, and Tesla; Germany takes pride in Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, and BMW; Japan and South Korea have cultivated their own globally esteemed brands. Presently, China lacks a universally acknowledged world-class automotive brand.

Yet, recent reports from Mydrivers.com highlight that China has already ascended to the status of a new energy vehicle juggernaut, wielding pivotal core technology and a comprehensive industrial framework, thereby freeing the automotive industry from constraints. Objectively, China possesses the foundation and capability to forge a world-class brand. Subjectively, the emotional desire to establish such a global automotive brand exists.

BYD also anticipates that by 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the Chinese market will surpass 60%. In 2022, Chinese brands forayed into over 50% of the market for the first time, with projections indicating that within 3 years, their market share will escalate to 70%. In a recent development, data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) indicates that in the first half of this year, China’s complete vehicle exports surged by 76.9% YoY, surpassing Japan and claiming the global lead for the first time.

(Source: https://news.mydrivers.com/1/928/928676.htm)

TrendForce’s latest research finds that global sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs), which encompass battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and fuel-cell vehicles (FCVs), rose by 70% YoY to 2.87 million units for 3Q22. Of the quarterly total, BEV sales accounted for 2.147 million units and registered a YoY growth of 75%, whereas PHEV sales accounted for 714,000 units and registered a YoY growth of 57%.

Tesla placed at the first place in 3Q22 BEV market, BYD is the biggest threat

In the global ranking of BEV brands by vehicle sales for 3Q22, Tesla took first place with 344,000 units. While Tesla managed to maintain its market share at 16%, its lead over second-placed BYD in sales figure had narrowed further. BYD sold 259,000 BEVs in 3Q22, posting a massive YoY growth of 182%. It is also worth noting that the gap between Tesla and BYD in BEV sales has been smaller than 100,000 units for two quarters straight. SGMW and Volkswagen respectively stayed at third and fourth in the ranking, showing no change from the previous quarter. As for fifth to 10th, TrendForce especially points out that these places were all taken by Chinese brands. Looking at the global top 10 BEV brands for 3Q22, MG Motor (that has been acquired by SAIC Motor) and Geometry entered this group for the first time mainly thanks to the robust demand from China. Conversely, Hyundai, Kia, and XPeng Motors were pushed out of the top 10. XPeng stated that the deliveries of its new electric SUV G9 would ramp up this October. Whether XPeng will remain in the group of top 10 for 2022 depends on its performance in the fourth quarter.

Huawei’s big plan in the automotive market: the rise of Chinese brand “AITO”

Turning to the global ranking of PHEV brands by vehicle sales for 3Q22, BYD was at the top with 279,000 units and held a market share of 39.1%. As for other PHEV brands, they still were unable to raise their market shares above 10% even though they posted a QoQ increase in vehicle sales. Looking at the two German luxury car brands that are involved in the PHEV segment, Mercedes-Benz rose to second place in the ranking because of a QoQ gain for vehicle sales in both the home market and China. BMW saw falling sales for its PHEVs in Europe, so it posted a decline in units and slipped down in the the ranking. Chinese brand AITO entered the group of the global top 10 PHEV brands for the first time in 3Q22 and was immediately placed fifth. AITO is a brand under Seres and is in close cooperation with Huawei, and its vehicle models feature many technologies from Huawei as well. Going forward, the market performances of AITO’s vehicles will actually be an important indicator of Huawei’s progress in the development of an automotive business.

Moving into 4Q22, TrendForce believes that autumn releases of new vehicle models and year-end promotional activities will be the main drivers of car sales worldwide. Consumers have been waiting for new vehicle models or new generations of the existing vehicle models. This is one of the reasons why some carmakers saw declining vehicle sales in 3Q22. Therefore, these same carmakers could still get a boost in annual vehicle sales from their performances in the fourth quarter. As for the Chinese NEV market, it will stay fairly hot in 4Q22 as car brands operating there continue to provide incentives for vehicle purchases. Furthermore, Chinese consumers still want to take advantage of their government’s NEV subsidy program before its termination.