China’s penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) exceeded 40% for the first time in November this year, reaching 40.4% in domestic retail sales, a 4 percentage point increase from the same period last year. Optimistic growth is anticipated by 2024, with wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles expected to reach 11 million units.

The China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) released the latest data, forecasting that the total sales of passenger vehicles in China in November 2023 will reach 25.5 million units. With a huge increase of the 3.2 million units exported in 2017, the overall sales of passenger vehicles are set to significantly surpass the wholesale volume of 24.5 million units in 2017, reaching a historic high.

It is evident that NEVs in China are seen as a catalyst for the next wave of economic momentum. According to a report by the BJNews, Cui Dongshu, the Secretary General of CPCA, stated that the Chinese domestic retail penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles in November was 40.4%, a 4 percentage point increase from the 36% penetration rate of the same period last year.

This marks China’s first-ever monthly penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles exceeding 40%. As a key driver of growth in the Chinese passenger vehicle market, the retail sales of NEVs in November increased by nearly 40%, reaching 841,000 units with an 8.9% MoM growth.

In the first 11 months of this year, China’s cumulative retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 6.809 million units, a YoY increase of 35.2%. CPCA believes that the growth outlook for the new energy passenger vehicle market in 2024 is relatively optimistic, with wholesale sales expected to reach 11 million units, a net increase of 2.3 million units, a 22% YoY increase, and a penetration rate of 40%.

Chinese brands in the NEV sector are gradually expanding their market influence through multifaceted development in technology and sales strategies. According to CPCA statistics, in November, 18 companies saw wholesale sales exceed 10,000 units, accounting for 88.9% of the total new energy passenger vehicle volume. BYD continued to lead the rankings with a monthly sales volume of about 301,400 units, followed closely by Tesla China with 82,400 units. The export of Chinese brand new energy passenger vehicles also showed significant growth, with A0-class electric vehicles accounting for nearly 60% and becoming the absolute mainstay of exports.

(Image: BYD)

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Honda, the Japanese automotive giant, is set to lay off around 900 employees from its Chinese joint venture, GAC Honda. This move comes as the company adjusts to the shifting market focus towards electric vehicles (EVs). Notably, this marks the first instance of job cuts in the 25-year collaboration between Honda and Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd. (GAC).

TrendForce’s Insights:

1. Independent Brands in China Ascend but Japanese and Chinese Joint Ventures Decline

As per GAC Honda’s released data, the cumulative production and sales figures for the first ten months of 2023 witnessed a significant drop of 20.52% and 21.55%, totaling 520,500 and 499,400 vehicles, respectively. Apart from GAC Honda, both GAC Toyota and FAW Toyota have embarked on plans to scale back production or streamline personnel. Mitsubishi Motors announced officially to exit the Chinese market in October 2023, with GAC Aion taking over its factory.

Despite efforts by Japanese automakers to catch up EV revolution, the competition from independent brands remains formidable. GAC Honda and Dongfeng Honda introduced pure electric models like e:NP1 and e:NS1 in the Chinese market. GAC Toyota and FAW Toyota also entered the EV market with models like bZ3 and bZ4X.

However, facing intense competition from independent brands, joint ventures struggle to maintain market share. According to the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) data, independent brands claimed 60% of the market share in October 2023, while joint venture brands dropped below 40%. This is a stark contrast to two years ago when independent brands held only 41.2% of the market.

Constrained by the cautious approach of Japanese automakers to vehicle electrification, joint ventures lack a robust lineup of pure electric models, relying mainly on hybrid models. Despite the hybrid technology’s strength in Japanese automakers, they are gradually losing ground to independent brands like Geely and BYD, resulting in a steady decline in joint venture brands’ market share.

2. Japanese Automakers Urged to Collaborate Openly with Chinese Counterparts

The hybrid models and brand strength of Japanese automakers continue to command a presence in the market, due to current challenges such as EV high prices and range anxiety. However, in the mature Chinese market for pure electric vehicles, Japanese automakers must cede more control over the development of joint venture models to Chinese manufacturers. An example of successful collaboration is Dongfeng Nissan’s Venucia, which is based on Dongfeng Motor’s technology, blending Chinese manufacturers’ expertise with Japanese automakers’ brand strength.

Japanese joint venture brands face challenges, highlighting the necessity for innovative advancements in model technology amid the new energy vehicle era. Faced with the trend towards higher intelligence and electrification in new energy vehicles, Japanese automakers must recognize that their current priority is not to surpass Chinese manufacturers but to navigate the electrification wave successfully. Joint venture brands act as a crucial lifeline, and Japanese automakers can bridge the technological gap by leveraging joint venture platforms, utilizing resources from Chinese manufacturers, and fostering collaboration. The key lies in Japanese automakers transitioning from market development leaders to active learners.

Recent reports suggest that Li Auto, a Chinese new energy vehicle company, is currently building a team in Singapore dedicated to the R&D of SiC power chips. On LinkedIn, Li Auto has posted five recent job openings in Singapore, including roles like General Manager, SiC Power Module Failure Analysis/Physical Analysis Expert, SiC Power Module Design Expert, SiC Power Module Process Expert, and SiC Power Module Electrical Design Expert.

In terms of power devices, electric drive systems in current 400V models typically employ Si IGBT, while 800V models mostly utilize SiC MOSFETs. This choice enables higher power density, leading to smaller and lighter equipment.

SiC, known for enhancing the driving range of electric vehicles and improving charging efficiency, finds widespread application in components like main inverters, on-board chargers, and DC/DC converters.

Recognizing the potential, Li Auto is among the many new energy vehicle makers incorporating SiC into their products.

As of August last year, Li Auto had launched the construction of power semiconductor R&D and production base in the Suzhou High-tech Zone. The base aims to initiate sample production in the first half of 2023, officially beginning full-scale production in 2024, with an ultimate annual capacity of 2.4 million SiC power modules. This marks Li Auto’s strategic move into the independent industry landscape for the next generation of high-voltage electric drive technology.

To achieve higher efficiency on the high-voltage platform, Li Auto is opting for SiC power modules over traditional IGBT. At the 2023 Auto Shanghai in April, Li Auto unveiled an 800V fast charging solution featuring an 800V high-voltage electric drive system built on SiC technology, enabling a 10-minute charge for a range of 400 km.

Li Auto’s next-gen SiC power module, integrating multiple components into the motor controller design, compresses the controller’s volume to within 4L, boasting a high power density of up to 62 kW/L. This reduces the volume and weight of the electric drive system, further optimizing the vehicle’s spatial layout and energy consumption.

In addition to Li Auto, the all-new NIO ES6, also showcased at the 2023 Auto Shanghai, incorporates SiC power modules and is equipped with a the second generation high-efficiency e-drive platform.

Furthermore, Hongqi, FAW Group’s premium auto brand, latest electric E202 SUV debuted at the 2023 Auto Shanghai. Based on the FMEs architecture 800V SiC charging platform, it requires only 5 minutes of charging for a range of 300 km.

Notably, Huawei recently introduced the new DriveONE 800V high-voltage SiC motor platform, focusing on better performance for electric vehicles. With high-voltage SiC technology, this motor platform achieves a rotation speed of up to 22,000 rpm and a maximum efficiency of 98%. Huawei’s latest SiC motor release is anticipated to open a new page in the electric vehicle industry.

The integration of SiC power devices into electric vehicles represents a significant trend in the development of the new energy vehicle industry. Leading automakers are poised to invest more resources in the research and development of related products, ultimately attaining independent control over core technologies.

(Image: Li Auto)

Several Chinese new energy vehicle manufacturers disclosed their delivery and sales data for September on Sunday, October 1. GAC Aion, in particular, reached a significant milestone by surpassing 50,000 in sales, while Li Auto Inc. experienced a remarkable 200% surge in deliveries.

…

Source to China Times, despite the intense price wars engulfing the Chinese automotive market, domestic electric vehicle leader BYD is continuing to gain ground. In the third quarter of this year, BYD’s production volumes surpassed Tesla’s, making it the global leader in electric vehicle production. In terms of sales, BYD sold a total of 431,600 pure electric vehicles in the first three quarters of the year, just slightly behind Tesla, bringing it closer to the top spot in global electric vehicle sales.

According to reports from Chinese media on the 3rd of this month, BYD recently released its latest production and sales data. In September of this year, BYD produced approximately 280,000 new energy vehicles, representing a 36.6% increase compared to the same period last year.

TrendForce’s recent research showed that BYD surpassed Ford to become the fourth-largest global car brand in terms of car sales for August. Despite the weakening demand in the domestic car market, BYD was not significantly affected as all of its offerings are new energy vehicles. BYD saw a 5% increase in car sales compared with July and was just 0.1 percentage point behind Honda in market share, which held the third position.

It’s important to note that the term “new energy vehicles” in China includes plug-in hybrid vehicles and fully battery-electric vehicles. Regarding pure electric vehicles, BYD produced around 144,000 units in September, marking a 71% year-on-year increase. In the third quarter, BYD produced approximately 440,000 pure electric vehicles, which is a 67% increase compared to the previous year, establishing it as the largest manufacturer and seller of pure electric vehicles in China.

In contrast, Tesla, which exclusively produces pure electric vehicles, manufactured approximately 430,500 units in the third quarter of this year, marking an 18% year-on-year increase. Data indicates that in terms of production for that quarter, BYD has secured the title of the world’s largest electric vehicle manufacturer.

In terms of sales, BYD achieved a new record with 822,100 units of new energy vehicles sold in the third quarter of this year.

Specifically, BYD sold around 431,600 pure electric vehicles, representing a 23% increase from the second quarter, with 151,200 units sold in September, marking a 59% year-on-year increase. Tesla delivered 435,100 units in the third quarter, a decrease of more than 31,000 units compared to the previous quarter, marking its first decline since the second quarter of last year.

This narrows the gap between Tesla and BYD to 3,456 units, the closest it has been in their ongoing competition. Analysts point out that over the past year, BYD has aggressively expanded into new overseas markets such as Southeast Asia, Japan, the Middle East, Europe, and Latin America, leading to a continuous increase in deliveries. In contrast, Tesla faced production line adjustments and factory shutdowns, resulting in its first-quarter decline in deliveries in over a year, further closing the sales gap.

In recent years, with the Chinese government’s support and encouragement of car purchases, China has become the world’s largest market for pure electric vehicles, accounting for about 33% of global sales, and the market demand remains strong. Given BYD’s competitive advantage in the Chinese market, surpassing Tesla in both production and sales is not an impossible feat.

On the other hand, Tesla, despite initiating a price war successfully earlier this year in China, sacrificed its previously leading profit margins and now faces fierce competition not only from BYD but also from other peers like NIO in an increasingly competitive market. Even in its home market in the United States, Tesla must contend with competition from established automakers such as Ford, General Motors, Hyundai, and Volkswagen.

(Source: https://www.ctee.com.tw/news/20231004700119-439901)