TrendForce has released its latest report, “Analysis of EEA Architecture and ADAS Domain Controllers in New Energy Vehicles,” providing a detailed analysis of the evolution of electronic and electrical architectures in new energy vehicles and the current status of ADAS domain controllers. Excerpts from the report are as follows.

TrendForce’s Insights:

1. BEV Platform: the Ideal Carrier for High Integration EEA Development

In recent years, various automakers have been investing resources to enhance the competitiveness of their new energy vehicles, particularly Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs), by developing BEV platforms.

With the complete elimination of internal combustion engines, BEVs exhibit a higher degree of electrification compared to other powertrain modes, facilitating the design of high-computing power and highly integrated Electrical/Electronic Architecture (EEA).

Furthermore, startup automakers unburdened by traditional internal combustion engine constraints currently lead in the integration of EEA architectures compared to traditional automakers.

2. Domain Controllers are Parts of the Key Components for the Development of Highly Integrated EEA

Currently, domain controllers with varying computational power are widely distributed in the market.

However, electric vehicles equipped with high-performance domain controllers still have prices significantly higher than the average, and given the limited economic scale of new entrants, sustained cost reduction requires continuous investment from more manufacturers and improvement in usage environment.

3. The Economic Scale of BEVs Will be the Main Hurdle for EEA Development

While BEVs are considered the optimal platform for developing highly integrated EEAs, the challenges of range anxiety and high vehicle prices continue to be significant barriers affecting the sustained growth of the market.

This has led to a recent slowdown in BEV demand, prompting automakers to redirect some of their development resources to PHEV and even HEV models. These vehicle types may not necessarily require or be suitable for high-performance chips.

Therefore, if PHEVs and HEVs continue to grow, they could become key factors affecting the economies of scale and widespread adoption of high-performance chips.

Volkswagen recently unveiled its extensively redesigned Tiguan lineup. This vehicle, built on the MQB Evo platform, offers a range of powertrain options, including gasoline, diesel, mild-hybrid, and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) variants. Notably, the PHEV model features a 1.5-liter TSI evo 2 turbocharged engine and a 19.7 kWh battery pack, providing an impressive electric-only driving range of 100 km with an efficiency of around 5.1 km/kWh.

TrendForce’s Insights:

1. Addressing Range Anxiety: PHEVs Gain Traction Among Consumers and Automakers

PHEVs offer a dual-power output system, primarily relying on traditional combustion engines for long-distance driving and electric power from the battery pack for shorter trips. These PHEVs feature larger battery packs than hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and can be recharged. Recently, PHEVs, including Volkswagen’s Tiguan, have surpassed a 100 km electric range milestone. Other models, such as the BMW 5 Series, Honda Accord e:PHEV, and Changan Oshan Z6, have also achieved similar electric ranges. Toyota even announced its focus on PHEV development, with a goal of reaching an average electric range of up to 200 km.

As calculated by TrendForce, the PHEV market share has grown from 9% in 2015 to 21% in 2023, with an average battery pack capacity increase from 15 kWh in 2018 to 20 kWh in 2023. While BEVs remain the primary choice in the electric vehicle market, manufacturers continue to introduce PHEV models due to consumer range anxiety and the desire to maximize the remaining value of traditional combustion engines.

2. Overcoming PHEV Challenges: Charging Infrastructure and Range Improvements

Most PHEVs are adapted from existing internal combustion engine (ICE) platforms, incorporating both ICE and electric power components. The complexity and higher number of components in PHEVs may impact overall vehicle efficiency, requiring additional maintenance or part replacement, which could be costly for consumers.

Consumers are well aware of the drawbacks of PHEVs, yet the steadily growing market share indicates that range anxiety remains a major concern. PHEVs, offering the comfort of a gasoline engine alongside electric capabilities, outweigh their inherent flaws when it comes to reducing range anxiety. Besides, Geely’s Zeekr hybrid series can incorporate a smart driving system with a centralized domain controller architecture, challenging the notion that traditional gasoline vehicle platforms can’t support advanced autonomous driving.

In conclusion, with the push from both the market and automakers, PHEV technology is continually advancing and is no longer considered a “transitional solution” as it was in the past. While inherent flaws still exist, consumers are more accepting of these drawbacks compared to their concerns about range anxiety. To completely eradicate range anxiety, the ratio of public charging stations to vehicles needs to shift from the current 7:1 to 2:1 or even 1:1. Alternatively, matching the range of internal combustion engine vehicles is crucial. However, both of these goals are not likely to be achieved until around 2030. Until then, PHEVs will maintain a significant presence in the market.

Report to InfoTimes, Chinese electric vehicle giant BYD is making impressive strides in Southeast Asia, not only leaving strong rivals like Tesla far behind but also dominating the market share in the region. Currently, in the local market, at least one out of every four electric vehicles is a BYD.

Industry analysts point out that BYD’s competitive advantage lies in its affordability and high value for money. Early on, the company partnered with large enterprises and conglomerates in Southeast Asia, adopting a distribution model to sell its vehicles. This approach allowed BYD to gradually expand its influence, understand the preferences of Southeast Asian car owners, and navigate the complex local regulations without running afoul of them.

According to TrendForce, in Q2, BEVs alone posted sales of 2.151 million units, marking 39.3% growth YoY. While Tesla maintains the lead with a market share of 21.7%, but BYD trails closely behind with a boosted share of 16.2%. In PHEVs, with the registering sales of 876,000 units in Q2—a striking 52.9% YoY increase. Astonishingly, about 66% of these sales hailed from the Chinese market. In this segment, BYD continued its lead with a whopping 36.5% market share.

In fact, this sales model is not something BYD pioneered. Japanese automakers employed a similar strategy decades ago when entering Southeast Asia. Collaborating with local businesses in a united front, as opposed to competing directly with Tesla, set BYD’s marketing approach apart.

Data reveals that BYD has forged partnerships with various Southeast Asian entities, including Sime Darby, a conglomerate with over a century of history in Malaysia and Singapore, Bakrie & Brothers in Indonesia, Ayala, a renowned conglomerate in the Philippines, and Rever Automotive in Thailand.

Automobile sales consultancy firm Urban Science believes that BYD’s collaboration with prominent local conglomerates helps establish a stable foothold before gaining fame. When Southeast Asian consumers have reservations about Chinese-made cars, knowing that well-known large corporations are involved should provide reassurance, particularly in terms of after-sales service.

Recently, BYD has invested nearly $500 million in building a new factory in Thailand. Starting in 2024, it aims to produce 150,000 electric vehicles annually and export them to various Southeast Asian and European countries. AC Motors, a subsidiary of the Philippines’ Ayala Group, plans to establish more than ten BYD service centers in the Philippines within the next 12 months.

AC Motors emphasizes that the initial focus of its operations is on building brand confidence and encouraging more people to consider buying electric vehicles. Some individuals may have concerns about running out of power with electric cars or find their prices too high.

Currently, Tesla has only opened two stores in Singapore, which caters to a higher-income demographic. However, Tesla is also actively recruiting in Thailand and Malaysia. Leveraging Elon Musk’s personal global influence, Tesla can operate directly toward consumers after leaving the United States, a strategy that sets it apart from other automakers.

To increase its visibility, BYD has partnered with Sime Darby Group to launch five BYD by 1826 centers in Singapore, combining car showrooms with delicious restaurants. This innovative approach aims to attract more people to discover the BYD brand through fine dining and, in turn, become part of BYD’s growing community of car owners. (Image credit: BYD)

(Source: https://www.chinatimes.com/cn/realtimenews/20230919001709-260410?chdtv)

The global automotive landscape is undergoing a decisive shift toward new energy vehicles (NEVs). TrendForce reports that in 1H23, NEV sales—which encompass battery electricity vehicles (BEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs)—soared to an impressive 5.462 million units, reflecting a growth of 33.6% YoY. Specifically, Q2 sales reached 3.03 million units, a 42.8% YoY surge, constituting 14.4% of total car sales for the period, and playing a pivotal role in 1H23 growth.

In Q2, BEVs alone posted sales of 2.151 million units, marking 39.3% growth YoY. While Tesla maintains the lead with a market share of 21.7%, BYD trails closely behind with a boosted share of 16.2%. Moreover, GAC Aion, a brand that has been making waves primarily in the Chinese market with its high value-for-money proposition, clinched the third spot with a 6% market share. Recently, the company has launched high-end models priced above CNY 220,000, aiming to diversify its product range. The top 10 BEV brands in Q2 remained fairly consistent with Q1, with only a minor shuffling in ranks. However, compared to the same period in 2022, fewer Chinese brands made the list, likely due to the growing number of EV models from traditional automakers and fierce competition among Chinese brands.

PHEVs weren’t left behind, registering sales of 876,000 units in Q2—a striking 52.9% YoY increase. Astonishingly, about 66% these sales hailed from the Chinese market. In this segment, BYD continued its lead with a whopping 36.5% market share. Its high-end subsidiary Denza, recorded increasing sales, escalating its market share to 3.4% and climbing to seventh place. Another brand to watch, Li Auto, set a new Q2 record with 87,000 units sold, keeping its second-place position firm with 10% market share. Among international competitors, both Volvo and Jeep noted growth over the previous year, with Jeep crossing 30,000 units, an achievement that’s brought them into the top five for the first time.

While major markets including China, Western Europe, and the US continue to dominate NEV sales, emerging players like Thailand and Australia have made significant strides in 2023. Both nations exceeded 35,000 units in sales in 1H23, with Thailand quadrupling its 2022 figures and Australia experiencing a fivefold increase.

Although these figures are modest in comparison to global sales, they highlight the vast potential of these markets. Recognizing this growth trajectory, many major automobile brands are strategically planning their expansions into these burgeoning regions.

Since the 1980s, Toyota collaborated with Denso to conduct research on SiC. In 2014, SiC inverters were installed in Toyota’s Prius and Camry hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) for driving and on-road testing, confirming a 5-10% improvement in energy efficiency. After this successful testing, Toyota adopted SiC in its hydrogen fuel cell buses that were put into formal operation in 2015 and 2018. At that time, the cost of SiC chips was higher than it is now, so Toyota continued to primarily use Si-IGBT inverters in its hybrid vehicle models.

Model 3 SiC Inverter Sparks Toyota’s Concerns About Electrification

In 2017, the Model 3, equipped with SiC inverters, became the best-selling battery electric vehicle (BEV) on the market due to its high performance and long range. It also contributed to the surge of new BEV sales, which exceeded 1.2 million vehicles in 2018. Since then, many automakers have targeted SiC as the basis for next-generation BEV drivetrain systems, while Toyota continued to adhere to its hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) and hydrogen fuel cell vehicle (FCV) strategies. According to TrendForce, the total new sales of PHEVs and BEVs is estimated to reach approximately 10.63 million vehicles in 2022, while Toyota’s sales in this sub-market are only close to 100,000, accounting for about 1% of the market share, far behind BYD’s 19% and Tesla’s 15%.

In the current EV industry, BEVs and PHEVs have become the mainstream, while HEVs may gradually shrink in the future market. Pressures from the changing market have forced Toyota, which has not fully focused on BEVs and PHEVs in the past, to rethink its overall electrification strategy and accelerate the production capacity and technological layout of key components, such as SiC.

Toyota aims to sell 3.5 million electric vehicles by 2030, and has demonstrated its commitment to electrification through the establishment of a SiC wafer manufacturing technology research company. SiC chips have the potential to improve energy efficiency in electric vehicles, but their high cost is currently a challenge due to low SiC wafer yields in the manufacturing process. QureDA Research’s Dynamic AGE-ing technology could help improve wafer yields and lower chip costs. If successful, this technology, combined with Toyota’s market presence, could enhance the competitiveness of Toyota’s electric vehicles and give them a chance to compete for a leading position in the future electric vehicle market.

（Image credit: Toyota LinkedIn）