According to the Economic Daily News’ report, industry sources indicate that Samsung, a major supplier of CIS, has issued a price increase notice to customers on November 29th, projecting an average price increase of up to 25% in the first quarter of next year.

The individual product lines may see an even higher increase, reaching levels of up to 30%, primarily in specifications with 32 million pixels and above. This suggests that the CIS market is poised for a new cycle of price increases.

Previously, the CIS market was impacted by subdued demand in the consumer market, leading to a decline in market prices and making CIS one of the first component to experience price declines. However, entering the latter half of this year, the demand for smart devices, particularly in the smartphone market, has started to recover comprehensively.

This is driven by strong procurement efforts from Chinese smartphone brands, significantly boosting inventory demand and becoming the catalyst for the rapid clearance of CIS inventory.

(Photo credit: Samsung)

Sony, a major supplier of Apple’s camera sensors, suggests weaker demand for the upcoming iPhone 15 due to a lackluster year for Apple’s iPhone sales. Economic challenges have affected iPhone sales, though service revenues have offset losses. The flagship iPhone 15 series is scheduled for a September release.

Sony the world’s largest sensor supplier, had previously projected a gradual recovery in its smartphone imaging and sensing business by the second half of 2023. However, during its latest earnings call, the company revealed that this recovery might not take shape until 2024, mainly attributing the delay to underwhelming sales in the Chinese market.

Sadahiko Hayakawa, Sony’s Senior General Manager of Finance, stated, “The recovery pace of the Chinese smartphone market has been slower than our expectations, and the situation in the US market is worsening. We originally anticipated the smartphone market to recover starting from the second half of this fiscal year, but our current assessment suggests that it might not happen until at least next year.”

Sony’s top brass attribute a cautious outlook to a sluggish global economy and geopolitical uncertainties, hinting at muted demand for the iPhone 15 series. This stance resonates with analyst Ming-Chi Kuo view at TFI Securities, forecasting that iPhone 15 might struggle to surpass iPhone 14 sales records, posing challenges to Apple’s suppliers in H2 2023.

Apple reported a 2.4% decline in iPhone sales for its third fiscal quarter, reaching $39.7 billion, slightly below analyst estimates of $39.9 billion. The US region saw a 5.6% year-on-year drop in sales, highlighting a performance that falls short of expectations.

(Source: https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/5282617)

As the mass production of the new iPhone draws near, TrendForce, in April this year, raised concerns in the smartphone industry about several design changes made to the 2023 iPhone models almost half a year ahead of production. The industry is closely monitoring whether related components can keep up with the production schedule to ensure smooth execution of subsequent assembly plans. Recently, TrendForce provided updates on the production progress and details of these components.

According to TrendForce’s investigation, two critical components in the iPhone supply chain are causing worries about potential supply issues – the CIS (CMOS Image Sensor) and the titanium alloy frame. Currently, there are still bottlenecks in the production of these components that need to be overcome.

Regarding the CIS, the bottleneck arises from Sony’s supply of the new 48MP CIS, which is expected to be used in iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Plus. This CIS adopts a new stacked design, separating the CIS photodiodes and peripheral transistors into three layers instead of the previous double-layer structure. This poses a significant challenge to yield rates, and despite Sony’s efforts to increase production capacity to cope with the yield ramp-up difficulties, the supply situation does not meet anticipated levels, affecting the initial production schedule of the entire device.

As for the titanium frame, due to the elimination of the pressure-sensitive button structure and the slight adjustment in the opening for the mute switch, the suppliers need to re-allocate, set up, and verify the basic operating time of the production lines.

Additionally, the processing procedures for titanium are more complicated compared to stainless steel, which leads to longer production lead times. TrendForce confirmed recently that the titanium frame for the new iPhone is currently one of the components with lower yield rates and supply stability. Therefore, suppliers have expanded production capacity by 20-30% and are working diligently to ensure that even if the initial supply is tight during the early stages of production, they can respond accordingly, ensuring that the launch and supply of the entire device will not be affected.

Given the supply constraints of these two components mentioned above, TrendForce believes that Apple may increase the production proportion of the two Pro models in 3Q23 to fill the gap caused by the initial iPhone 15’s production capacity shortage. This adjustment, in an optimistic scenario, will only involve shifting production proportions between different models in two quarters, with no impact on the annual shipment performance. TrendForce assesses that this possibility is more likely under the current circumstances.

However, if the CIS yield bottleneck is difficult to overcome, it could lead to a substantial reduction in the shipment volume of the 2023 iPhone models. TrendForce will continue to monitor the situation closely.

Market conditions in 2022 are chaotic and demand for chips fluctuate according to application. However, the IC design industry is driven by major manufacturers and the sales performance of high-end product portfolios such as data center, server, networking, industrial computing, automotive, and high performance computing will remain stable The overall market will grow to $182.9 billion, an annual increase of 14.4%.

At present, the overall industry is being negatively affected by weak demand for consumer electronics. In addition, the tightening of financing and the expectation of a wider economic recession further strengthen pessimistic attitudes. There is no opportunity for chip demand to reinvigorate in the short term, not to mention that the supply chain is already dealing with full inventories. A return of the traditional industry peak season in 2H23 will stabilize purchasing power while flat to single-digit growth in the IC design industry would be a relatively good scenario.

R&D expenses positively correlated with manufacturer revenue, AMD posts best performance in 1H22

In 1H22, R&D expenses at major IC design houses were positively related to revenue in general. The use of advanced manufacturing processes requires strong R&D capabilities, accounting for 15-35% of revenue. AMD is the most active among U.S. companies. After acquiring Xilinx and Pensando, AMD has aggressively invested in the research and development of data center-related product portfolios. In 2Q22, R&D expenditures increased by 97.2% YoY. In terms of Asian manufacturers, the impact of the poor consumer electronics market is severe and revenue growth momentum has all but disappeared. Therefore, the synchronization of R&D expenditure with revenue is also more conservative. Novatek, Willsemi, and LX Semicon product portfolios are dominated by mature processes such as DDIC and CIS with R&D/ revenue ratios below 15%.

IC design industry inventory on red alert, inventory adjustment to become a challenge by 2Q23

The IC design industry has accumulated inventory since 3Q21 and the annual growth rate of inventory has climbed to more than 50% in 1H22. Compared with the annual growth rate of revenue, the difference among American manufacturers is 20% and the difference among Asian manufacturers is 46%, indicating that inventory issues among Asian manufacturers is more serious.

The inventory levels of consumer electronics-related industries such as Smartphone, TV, Tablet, PC/notebook, and Panel, are at a 6 month level. The supply chains of IC design houses and distributors/agents are also holding substantial inventory. The inventory-to-revenue ratio of IC design houses has reached a red alert threshold of over 50%. With no improvement in demand, expectations that inventory destocking will be completed by the end of 2022 may be dashed. At present, IC design houses are desperately reducing booked foundry production capacity for high-inventory mid-level AP, DDIC, and Consumer PMIC/GPU products. If the consumer electronics market outlook remains poor in 4Q22, IC design houses could also claim a greater amount of inventory depreciation as losses. In general by 2Q23, IC design houses will continue to test their strategies for new product development, production planning, and product sales during the process of destocking the overall supply chain.

（ Image credit: shutterstock）

Not only did automotive market take a downward turn starting in 2018, but the severe impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 also led to noticeably insufficient procurement activities from major automotive module suppliers, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. However, as the automotive market is currently set to make a recovery, TrendForce expects yearly vehicle sales to increase from 77 million units in 2020 to 84 million units in 2021.

At the same time, the rising popularity of autonomous, connected, and electric vehicles is likely to lead to a massive consumption of various semiconductor components. Even so, since most manufacturers in the automotive supply chain currently possess a relatively low inventory, due to their sluggish procurement activities last year in light of weak demand, the discrepancies in the inventory levels of various automotive components, along with the resultant manufacturing bottleneck, have substantially impaired automakers’ capacity utilization rates and, subsequently, vehicle shipments.

The recent shortage situation in the IC supply chain has gradually extended from consumer electronics and ICT products to the industrial and automotive markets. In the past, manufacturers in the automotive semiconductor industry were primarily based on IDM or fab-lite business models, such as NXP, Infineon, STMicroelectronics, Renesas, ON Semiconductor, Broadcom, TI, etc. As automotive ICs generally operate in wide temperature and high voltage circumstances, have relatively long product lifecycle, and place a heavy demand on reliability as well as longevity support, it is more difficult for the industry to alternatively transition its production lines and supply chains elsewhere.

Automotive semiconductor remains in shortage as production capacities remain fully loaded across the global foundry industry

Nevertheless, given the current shortage of production capacities across the foundry industry, wafer capacities allocated to automotive semiconductor components have been noticeably crowded out by other products. Some of these examples include automotive MCU and CIS manufactured in 12-inch fabs, as well as MEMS, Discrete, PMIC, and DDI products manufactured in 8-inch fabs. TrendForce indicates that automotive semiconductor products manufactured at the 28nm, 45nm, and 65nm nodes in 12-inch fabs are suffering the most severe shortage at the moment, while production capacities at 0.18µm and above nodes in 8-inch fabs have also been in long queue by other products.

As in-house IDM fabrications have relatively high CAPEX, R&D expense, and operating overhead, automotive IC vendors have in recent years outsourced some of their products to TSMC, GlobalFoundries, UMC, Samsung, VIS, Win Semiconductor and so on. In particular, TSMC specifically indicated during its 4Q20 earnings conference that wafer starts for automotive semiconductors reached rock bottom in 3Q20, while additional orders began arriving in 4Q20. As such, the company is currently considering allocating some of its production capacities from logic ICs to specialty foundry, in order to meet sudden demand from its long-term customer relationship.

For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms. Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforce.com