Source to China Times, the International Semiconductor Industry Association (SEMI) forecasts that from 2023 to 2026, the global semiconductor industry will add 12 new 8-inch wafer fabs, with 8-inch fab monthly production capacity increasing by 14% to a historic high of 7.7 million wafers. In response, UMC stated that from a supply and demand perspective, capacity growth still lags behind demand growth. UMC emphasized that it remains optimistic about the future of the 8-inch wafer market, thanks to ongoing advancements in special processes and differentiation.

SEMI notes that the continuous rise in the penetration rate of electric vehicles (EVs) worldwide is driving substantial growth in the demand for inverters and charging stations. The future mass adoption of EVs is the primary driver for increased investments in 8-inch fabs and the continued expansion of global 8-inch fab capacity.

Examining the situation of new 8-inch fabs in various countries, Southeast Asia will see the largest capacity increase, with a growth rate of approximately 32%. SEMI predicts that China’s 8-inch fab capacity will follow, with an increase of about 22%, reaching a monthly production capacity of 1.7 million wafers. The United States, Europe, the Middle East, and Taiwan are expected to have growth rates of approximately 14%, 11%, and 7%, respectively.

SEMI reports that by 2023, China’s 8-inch fab capacity will account for approximately 22% of the global total, with Japan at around 16%, Taiwan at around 15%, and Europe, the Middle East, and the United States each at about 14%. Furthermore, to meet future market demand, suppliers such as Bosch, Infineon, Mitsubishi, Onsemi, and STMicroelectronics are accelerating their 8-inch fab capacity expansion. It is estimated that from 2023 to 2026, the 8-inch fab capacity for automotive and power semiconductors will increase by 34%.

Concerns have been raised about potential oversupply as global 8-inch fabs expand, but UMC, a major semiconductor foundry, states that given the current rate of 8-inch fab expansion worldwide, the increase in capacity is relatively modest compared to demand. From a supply and demand perspective, it is certain that capacity growth will not keep pace with the growing global demand for 8-inch wafers.

UMC further notes that while 8-inch fabs are increasing, demand is unlikely to remain stagnant. Currently, the majority of semiconductor fabs being built worldwide are 12-inch fabs, making the expansion of 8-inch fabs relatively limited, and the supply-demand balance has not worsened.

(Source: https://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20230922000218-260204?chdtv)

Looking at the development of the global SiC (silicon carbide) industry, IDMs in Europe and the United States occupy an absolute leading position, with the United States accounting for more than half of the market share in the substrate material sector. In order to ensure long-term and stable development of the SiC business, major manufacturers have also successively intervened in key upstream substrate materials in an effort to control the supply chain. Therefore, vertical integration has become an important trend in the development of the SiC industry. The global market value of SiC power semiconductors is estimated to be approximately US$1.589 billion in 2022 and will reach US$5.302 billion by 2026, with a CAGR of 35%.

Wolfspeed holds more than half the world’s SiC substrate market share and is first to move to 8-inch wafers

SiC substrates are characterized by difficult growth conditions, arduous processing, and high technical thresholds, which have become a key constraint on downstream production capacity. At present, only a few manufacturers such as Wolfspeed, ROHM, ON Semi, and STM have the ability to independently produce SiC crystals. From the perspective of SiC substrate market share in 2021, the leading players in order of market share are: Wolfspeed at 62%, II-VI at 14%, SiCrystal at 13%, SK Siltron at 5%, and TankeBlue at 4%.

Increasing the number of components on a single wafer is one of the main methods of further reducing the cost of SiC power components, so the industry is fully promoting 8-inch transformation. 8-inch SiC wafers have issues such as difficult material growth, laborious dicing, and losses during dicing. At this stage, yield rate is low. Therefore, 8-inch SiC wafers will not have much impact on the industry in the short term but, in the long run, with breakthroughs in material growth and process yield, the final chip cost of 8-inch wafers will inevitably present great advantages.

SiC MOSFET market highly competitive, STM comes out on top

With the successful application of high-quality 6H-SiC and 4H-SiC epitaxial layer growth technology in the 1990s, the research and development of various SiC power components entered a period of rapid development, leading to their current ubiquity in sectors such as the automotive and industrial fields. From the perspective of competition patterns in the SiC power component market, as Tesla’s first SiC supplier, STM took first place in 2021 with a market share of 41%, Infineon took second place with 22%, followed by Wolfspeed, ROHM, ON Semi and other manufacturers.

TrendForce indicates, from the perspective of SiC MOSFET technology, trench structure’s powerful cost and performance advantages will see it become the mainstream technology in the future. Infineon and ROHM have been working on this a long time and these two companies have successively introduced this structure to the market as core products. STM, Wolfspeed, and On Semi still employ planar structures at this stage but their next generation products will also move to trench structures.

（Image credit: Pixabay）

The analog IC industry is one with a long history of development and product adoption across various applications. Annual analog IC revenue reached US$53.9 billion in 2020. As the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is gradually brought under control in China and the US this year, their domestic demand for telecom, automotive, industrial, and consumer electronics products has also kept growing, in turn generating strong demand for analog ICs. TrendForce therefore expects IC revenue for 2021 to reach US67.9 billion, a 22.1% YoY increase.

More specifically, analog IC demand from the automotive market is expected to undergo remarkable growth this year, primarily due to the recovery of the global automotive market and the continued trend towards automotive electrification as commercial opportunities from ADAS, EV, and automotive electronics enter a period of rapid growth. In response to demand from automakers and the auto market, various major IDMs have been placing a heavy emphasis on automotive analog IC development. Led by Infineon, NXP, Renesas, TI, and STM, the automotive IC market is expected to experience a 24.6% growth in 2021.

What is an analog IC?

The analog IC is an indispensable component in electronic devices. These chips can be divided into two categories according to their functions: general purpose analog IC and application specific analog IC. The former category encompasses amplifiers/comparators (signal conditioning), signal conversion, interface, and power management (general purpose). In sum, general purpose analog ICs are characterized by their low costs, single purpose, and universal compatibility.

Application specific analog ICs, on the other hand, encompass such use cases as consumer, computer, communications, automotive, and industrial/others. This product category refers to analog ICs that are designed and manufactured in accordance with electrical systems specified by the client. Compared to digital ICs, analog ICs are much more diverse in terms of product type, less costly, and more stable, while also having longer lifecycles.

The current state of the top three analog IC manufacturers

Almost all major analog IC suppliers are IDMs with long histories. In particular, longtime market leader Texas Instruments once against took pole position in the ranking of analog IC suppliers by revenue last year. With a range of analog ICs that includes more than 80,000 products, Texas Instruments possessed a 19% market share. The company is expected to maintain its dominance in 2021 thanks to its diverse product lines, high market acceptance, and high volume of client orders.

Infineon, which took second place on the ranking, registered a 19% YoY revenue growth on the back of its expansion into automotive and power management markets. Third-ranked STMicroelectronics benefitted from rising sales of its analog, MEMS, and sensor product portfolios. TrendForce expects Infineon and STMicroelectronics to continue their upward trajectories throughout 2021.

Whereas China is the largest market for analog ICs, the analog IC industry will see the highest growth in the US

China is expected to account for 42% of analog IC sales, the highest among all regions in 2021, with the consumer electronics segment comprising most of these transactions. However, the US is expected to undergo the highest growth in terms of analog IC sales with a US$10.6 billion revenue in 2021, a 25% YoY growth. This performance can mostly be attributed to the fact that the US economy has been recovering in the post-pandemic era owing to increasing purchases in the consumer electronics, telecom, and automotive markets.

Furthermore, the US government has been pushing for infrastructure developments with a focus on transportation, networking, and electricity generation, leading to expanded procurement of analog ICs used in these applications. As the markets welcomes the arrival of the traditional peak season for analog IC procurement in 2H21, growth in the US market will likely persist as well.

（Cover image source: Pixabay）