According to a report from TechNews, Micro LED technology boasts superior qualities such as higher transparency, richer color saturation, increased brightness, enhanced efficiency, and lower power consumption. It also extends product lifespans, making it an optimal choice for automotive displays. However, it currently grapples with challenges related to cost, mass transfer, extensive inspections, and red light efficiency, posing obstacles to large-scale production.

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As costs continue to decline, it is projected that OLED technology will reach a 50% penetration rate in the smartphone market by 2023. Additionally, OLED is gradually making inroads into applications such as TVs, laptops, and tablets. According to TrendForce analysis, the current landscape of OLED technology presents various opportunities and challenges depending on the application. In the realm of smartphones, the number of OLED smartphone products is on the rise, and the technology is taking on diverse forms, including rigid OLED screens, OLED curved displays, and OLED foldable displays.

TrendForce predicts that by 2023, the penetration rate of OLED foldable smartphones will reach 1.6%, with sales volume increasing from 12.8 million units in 2022 to 18.26 million units. With advancements in OLED display specifications and increasingly competitive pricing, OLED foldable smartphones are poised to become mainstream in the market. Currently, the penetration rate of OLED foldable smartphones is relatively low, primarily because OLED technology has not fully met user demands for larger screens within the same form factor while maintaining affordability. This marks a significant development trend for foldable smartphones in the future.

In response to the ever-evolving landscape of smartphone screens and high consumer demand, panel makers are taking a multi-faceted approach to upgrading OLED technology. To achieve full-screen displays while ensuring quality in screen visuals and camera functionality, certain brands have begun utilizing hole-punch screens, integrating the camera beneath the display – a prime example being the iPhone 14 Pro series with its Dynamic Island. On the other hand, companies like Samsung, BOE, and CSOT are opting to forego punch holes altogether. Instead, they are enhancing screen transparency and incorporating the camera beneath the display by rearranging specific display area pixels and reducing size.

Panel makers are enhancing OLED technology to improve both lifespan and efficiency. They are adopting LTPO technology to dynamically adjust screen refresh rates, reducing power consumption. Additionally, for foldable screens, companies are eliminating polarizers, using color filters to reduce reflection, and switching to ultra-thin glass cover panels. These optimizations are in response to the varied demands of smartphone applications, and they signal the continued growth of OLED in future smartphone uses.

In the realm of TV, TrendForce thinks that COVID-19, geopolitics, and rising shipping costs, furthermore, companies have been focusing on the development of larger-sized TVs, particularly in the 65, 77, and 85-inch categories, causing the overall decline in the TV market in recent years. The OLED TV market is primarily dominated by Korean manufacturers LG and Samsung. TrendForce projects that in 2023, OLED TVs will account for approximately 2% to 3% of the overall TV market.

TrendForce suggests that Samsung and LG are currently enhancing OLED technology by adopting new materials and incorporating quantum dot technology to improve OLED’s luminous efficiency. This has led to an increase in the cost of OLED technology, which in turn has limited the widespread adoption of OLED TVs. However, with factors such as depreciation of production machinery, improved yield rates for OLED products, and streamlining of the production process, it is expected that OLED TV prices will gradually decrease in the future.

Monitor

In 2023, OLED display shipments are expected to reach approximately 530,000 units, marking a 342% increase by YoY. However, OLED displays are projected to hold only a 2% to 3% market share in the overall display market. Within the OLED display market, LG is poised to surpass Dell and become the brand with the largest market share due to its proactive deployment of OLED product lines and diversified product offerings, along with strong demand for 27-inch products in the market.TrendForce states that the future of OLED displays lies in larger sizes, necessitating the use of higher-generation panel production lines for efficient and cost-effective OLED panel manufacturing.

Notebook, Tablet

In the laptop and tablet arena, as compared to smartphones and televisions, the application of OLED technology has been relatively limited. However, according to TrendForce, OLED technology is beginning to transition into IT-related applications. This includes innovations such as OLED Tandem device structures, as well as recent developments like JDI’s photolithography eLeap and Visionox’s ViP. These advancements are set to significantly enhance OLED performance and lifespan. When these technologies are ready for deployment, they are expected to effectively reduce OLED costs and substantially increase OLED panel penetration in the IT market.

Notably, Apple has already integrated OLED technology into its iPad products, and the Apple brand’s influence is expected to drive other brands to adopt OLED technology, accelerating OLED’s penetration in the IT market.

Automotive display

In the realm of automotive displays and other applications, TrendForce envisions a future for OLED technology characterized by transparency, extended lifespan, and versatility to meet the demands of foldable displays, automotive displays, and transparent displays. In automotive displays, OLED features such as high brightness, wide viewing angles, high contrast, and a broad operating temperature range make it suitable for applications like rear-seat entertainment systems and in-car infotainment displays. In the realm of transparent displays, OLED’s high transmittance and ability to display real-time information make it suitable for use in automotive windshields, windows, and A-pillars. Additionally, in the domain of stretchable displays, flexible OLED screens can be stretched and slid while maintaining a consistent thickness.

Due to weak demand in the mobile phone market, the decline in prices of mobile phone panels, especially AMOLED panels, has accelerated this year. Under overcapacity pressure, the price decline has exceeded expectations.

According to our survey, some brands actively introduced Ramless DDI flexible AMOLED panels in the second half of last year, trying to narrow the price gap with rigid AMOLED panels and increase usage rates through DDI cost optimization. However, the inventory level of flexible AMOLED panels with Ram is high, and the price decline has also accelerated, while also narrowing the price gap with rigid AMOLED panels.

The current prices update:

• Rigid AMOLED panels are around USD 18-20.
• Flexible AMOLED panels with Ram are priced at around USD 25 or even lower, which is a significant drop from the average of USD 30 or more last year.
• The above price reduction of flexible AMOLED panels with Ram has led to a price reduction of Ramless DDI flexible AMOLED panels, which are currently priced at around USD 20-22.

The significant price reduction of flexible AMOLED panels with Ram has dimmed the cost advantage of Ramless DDI flexible AMOLED panels, and currently only Xiaomi has adopted them. Other first-tier brand customers remain cautious.

In addition, due to the momentum of flexible AMOLED panel price declines, whether the price of rigid AMOLED panels will follow suit has become a challenge for SDC. We believe that SDC should follow the price reduction strategy and may even approach the level of USD 15 in the second half of the year after abandoning the USD 20 threshold.

However, there are two reasons why we believe SDC may find it difficult to reverse the current situation even with a price reduction strategy. These reasons include:

• Weak overall smartphone demand this year.
• Chinese brand customers will gradually adjust their procurement strategy to focus on domestic panel factories. For SDC, how to dispose of rigid AMOLED panel capacity in the medium to long term will be a major issue.

Due to the sustained pressure on AMOLED panel prices, LTPS LCD panel prices are also forced to continue to decline, and it is expected that prices will continue to drop from the current range of USD 10-15 and may even fall below USD 10.

On the other hand, because LTPS LCD prices have approached a-Si LCD panel prices, it has aroused the interest of some brand customers. Under the overall weak market conditions, adopting low-cost LTPS LCD specifications may help improve revenue performance or stimulate demand by upgrading from HD to FHD specifications at the same price.

The latest study by TrendForce shows that demand for large-size and mobile driver ICs will steadily grow as various applications recover. However, the speed of capacity supply adjustment and competition among different technologies will remain the key focus in the next few quarters.

Another thing worth noting is that the US chip ban has led to a trend of independent development between Chinese and non-Chinese supply chains. While this may increase production time and cost, it also presents opportunities for individual Chinese domestic suppliers and Taiwanese wafer foundries to acquire fresh orders.

Observations by TrendForce on each sector of driver ICs are summarized below-

• Large-size panel driver ICs: demand is expected to recover gradually and stabilize prices, but suppliers are cautious about inventory, which could lead to a supply shortage if demand surges too quickly.
• TDDI for mobile devices: prices and inventory have reached a low point, with a small rebound expected. In the long run, AMOLED panels are expected to dominate, so IC suppliers will need to explore new applications for medium-sized panels.
• AMOLED driver ICs: UMC’s 28nm high-voltage process is producing AMOLED driver ICs. If Apple shifts all 40nm AMOLED driver IC production to 28nm, TSMC’s 28nm capacity availability will be crucial to the market’s supply-demand balance.
• RAM-Less AMOLED driver ICs: RAM-Less AMOLED driver ICs with Chinese flexible AMOLED panels are gradually taking shape due to China’s domestic policy. However, the rapid price drop of Full-Ram AMOLED has caused brands to hesitate on adopting Ram-Less AMOLED.

TrendForce’s latest report, “AMOLED Technology and Market Status”, reveals that OLED, the next generation of digital displays, has not only taken hold of the smartphone market but is also beginning to make its move into other applications. Organic OLED materials are the core of the industry supply chain, accounting for 23% of the cost of making smartphone panels. An increasing penetration rate has allowed the global value of OLED materials to be estimated at US$2.23 billion in 2022, with a YoY growth rate of 30%. Production values are expected to reach US$3 billion by 2025, owing to the support of manufacturers.

OLED light-emitting components are either based on polymers or small-molecule materials. Polymers have poor solubility in organic solvents, which results in impure color and poor film uniformity. However, when combined with printing technology, the high aperture ratio can fit more materials and compensate for the poor lifespan and efficiency of polymers. Small-molecule materials have purer color and exhibit higher brightness, which can be applied to larger-generation OLED production. However, they are currently limited to developing FMM and vapor deposition machines.

OLED production begins with synthesizing intermediates from raw monomers. Then, the intermediates are processed to become precursors before finally being sublimated and purified into terminal OLED materials. When raw monomers are synthesized chemically into intermediates, there’s a gross margin of about 10–20%. These are mainly supplied by Chinese manufacturing companies such as Jilin OLED Material, Ruilian New Materials, Aglaia Tech, and Shenzhen Mason. Terminal materials are produced via sublimation and purification and their structure will not change through subsequent production. Therefore, the chemical structure, processes, and formulas are essential to trade secrets for terminal material manufacturers. The purity of these materials after sublimation is expected to be very high, meaning that technological barriers are also very high, allowing for gross margins as high as 60–70%. The technology and patents are concentrated within a few foreign manufacturers. However, the booming market has led to an influx of upstream manufacturers, gradually breaking down past technological barriers. Some Chinese manufacturers have been able to achieve mass production of precursors and terminal materials, and are now actively competing in the supply chain and driving growth.

Apart from two electrodes, the structure of an OLED component consists of organic light-emitting materials, including the main host (light-emitting layer), guest material (dopant), and functional layers (with electron or hole transport properties). DuPont and LG Chemical are the major manufacturers of red OLEDs, while Samsung DSI and Merck mostly produce green OLEDs. UDC has a monopoly on red and green phosphorescent dopant materials due to patent barriers. Blue light-emitting materials used to be primarily supplied by Idemitsu Kosan and Merck. Recently, LG’s next generation OLED evo TV uses deuterium-based blue emitter materials—supplied by DuPont and LG Chemical—to improve blue light-emitting efficiency. Its precursors are supplied by Ruilian New Materials.

Besides established manufacturers like Tokuyama, Idemitsu Kosan, and LG, Chinese manufacturers are also beginning to enter into the market to supply functional layers, such as Laite’s Red Prime. Samsung and UDC are planning to commercialize blue phosphorescent materials in 2024 in order to address the lifetime issues of blue OLEDs. Many new technologies, such as South Korean materials manufacturer, Lordin’s, patented Zero Radius Intra-Molecular Energy Transfer (ZRIET) rely on the efficiency of energy transfer between the main host and dopant, which is highly dependent on the distance between them. When that distance approaches zero, the quantum efficiencies of the molecules will not be affected at all. Therefore, efficiency can be improved by controlling the speed of energy transfer between the internal molecules of the material. Lordin has synthesized a material that maintains the respective characteristics of the main and dopant materials as well as a high energy transfer rate, which is expected to produce OLEDs that will be four times more efficient.

TrendForce believes the next stage of mobile terminal products will shift from folding smartphones to smart wearables, IT, and automotive applications, which will place more stringent demand on OLED components. The layout of panel manufacturers is becoming clearer thanks to brand endorsements. LG, Samsung, and BOE are all aggressively competing for priority for the Tokki G8.7 evaporation machine to gain an advantage in expanding application. The accelerated commercialization of blue phosphorescent materials and more innovative technologies, such as Samsung’s vertical evaporation developed with ULVAC, eLeap lithography, and printing processes to improve the aperture ratio will help push the expansion of OLEDs in the display industry. Meanwhile, costs will become more competitive as more Chinese manufacturers enter the market.