TrendForce has released the latest PV spot price, revealing the supply and demand dynamics in the market. Polysilicon and Wafer prices have shown a divergence over the week, whereas Module and Cell prices have remained steady.

Polysilicon

Polysilicon prices have diverged throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 57/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 55/KG and N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 64/KG.

The top-tier polysilicon companies are in a positive transaction phase, having essentially wrapped up January 2024 orders. Some businesses are still in the negotiation phase.

Regarding order prices, N-type polysilicon has maintained stability, primarily fueled by increased N-type wafer output and heightened demand resulting from a shift in part of the P-type wafer production capacity to N-type wafers.

Conversely, P-type polysilicon prices have experienced fluctuations and a continued decline. On one hand, the newly added production capacity has yielded low-quality polysilicon, exacerbating the oversupply issue for P-type polysilicon.

On the other hand, diminishing downstream output of P-type wafers has impacted the demand for P-type polysilicon, contributing to its declining price. Looking at the supply side, the influx of new production capacity in January is steadily increasing polysilicon output, with a medium single-digit month-on-month growth rate.

On the demand side, crystal pulling manufacturers maintain a high activation rate, but the output of N-type crystal pulling is rapidly rising.

In summary, this month shows positive supply and demand dynamics for N-type polysilicon, providing robust support for its price. However, the outlook for P-type polysilicon is bleak due to the production of low-quality output from the newly added capacity, creating an imbalance in the demand and supply relationship.

The expectation is that the price gap between N-type and P-type polysilicon will widen. This week, the prices of rechargeable and dense polysilicon have further declined, while N-type polysilicon remains stable.

Wafer

The prices of wafer have diverged throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 P-type wafer is RMB 1.90/Pc, while G12 P-type wafer is priced at RMB 3.00/Pc and M10 N-type is priced at RMB2.25/Pc.

Regarding P-type wafers, the pricing for 182mm and 210mm P-type wafers stands at 1.9 yuan and 3.0 yuan per piece, respectively, closely aligned with their cost structures. On the supply side, the swift shift of wafer manufacturers towards the production of N-type wafers has significantly diminished the output proportion of P-type wafers.

Concurrently, the shutdown of production capacities for downstream P-type cells on the demand side indicates a gloomy market for P-type products. Additionally, the stagnant price is attributed to low trading volumes, and P-type wafers have evolved into customized products, with their price trends and trading volumes contingent on the delivery of P-type projects.

Turning to N-type wafers, the supply side witnesses a double-digit increase in the output proportion of N-type wafers, projected to reach 70%. On the demand side, cell manufacturers are predominantly shifting towards N-type products, providing robust support for the demand for N-type wafers.

However, it is crucial to note the potential risk of increasing inventory for N-type wafers due to oversupply. There remains a possibility that the supply of N-type wafers will exceed demand, leading to fluctuations and a gradual decline in N-type wafer prices.

Moreover, concerning wafer sizes, rectangle wafers will dominate the N-type wafer market, and as the trading volume of various rectangle wafer sizes increases, we can expect more quoted prices for different sizes of N-type rectangle wafers. This week, the price of P-type wafers has remained unchanged, while the price of N-type modules has dropped to 2.1 yuan per piece.

Cell

Cell prices have remained stable this week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 cell is RMB 0.37/W, while G12 cell is priced at RMB 0.38/W. The price of M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.46/W.

Concerning P-type cells, the pricing for 182mm and 210mm P-type cells is set at 0.37 yuan and 0.38 yuan per watt, respectively. Notably, P-type cell prices have dipped below the cost line, leading to the essentially complete shutdown of its production capacity. Once cell manufacturers complete the delivery of ongoing projects, the production capacity for P-type cells will be cleared out.

On the supply side, major cell manufacturers have extensively halted P-type production capacities, resulting in a sharp decline in P-type cell output. Additionally, the demand from module manufacturers for P-type cells is rapidly diminishing.

With a decrease in both supply and demand, P-type cell prices are currently at a standstill. Specialized manufacturers are taking the strategic approach of halting production and stockpiling inventory to maximize profits when delivering the remaining P-type products.

On the flip side, regarding N-type cells, the supply side sees a higher share of total cell output. However, on the cost front, the positive support from the prices of N-type polysilicon and wafers is aiding in stabilizing N-type cell prices.

On the demand side, there is a significant increase in customer demand. Consequently, N-type cell prices have remained stable this week, supported by a balanced combination of supply, demand, and cost factors.

Module

Module prices have remained stable throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 0.98/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 1.00/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 1.00/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 1.01/W.

On the demand side, module manufacturers are experiencing a decline in the month-on-month growth rate of modules in January. With the conclusion of the last quarter’s earnings and the approach of the holiday season, both domestic and overseas demand have slowed down.

Module manufacturers are displaying a reduced inclination to boost output, opting to cut production to varying extents. The anticipated order amounts for January are relatively pessimistic on the demand side. Even top-tier manufacturers with existing orders supporting their production are witnessing a decreasing trend in order volume, let alone other manufacturers with fewer orders who find themselves compelled to cut or halt production.

Regarding domestic demand, January marks the off-season, and the purchasing demand for ground-based and distributed solar projects is at its lowest point for the entire year. However, overseas markets are showing signs of recovery, with a positive turn in month-on-month export volumes.

Furthermore, the continuous decline in module prices has spurred demand in the Indian market, while Brazil and Saudi Arabia experience a boom due to supportive government policies. Nevertheless, the export to the European market has not yet turned positive, and it will take time to deplete existing inventory and witness a recovery in demand. This week, both P-type and N-type module prices have remained stable.

Source to TrendForce, the most recent update on solar materials pricing indicates an ongoing decline in Polysilicon and Module prices, while Wafer and Cell prices are holding steady for the time being.

• Polysilicon

Polysilicon prices continue to decline throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 64/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 62/KG and N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 66/KG.

Looking at the market transaction dynamics, there’s not a significant volume of orders being placed. Some companies are gearing up for December’s order negotiations. Observing the price trend, polysilicon manufacturers are adjusting prices for both new and existing orders. Even some previously high-priced orders have experienced declines.

Furthermore, the average price of N-type polysilicon in new orders is generally below the 70000 yuan/ton mark. On the supply side, numerous projects are now in production, leading to a constant increase in the marginal increment of polysilicon and further swelling polysilicon inventory. Consequently, polysilicon manufacturers are grappling with increased pressure to de-stock.

Despite a month-on-month rise in operation rates for professional wafer manufacturers, creating additional demand for polysilicon, the surplus supply remains challenging to address.

This week, polysilicon prices continue their downward trajectory, and there’s a significant oversupply of polysilicon. Moreover, with customer installation demand still not turning positive, crystal pulling manufacturers are adopting a pessimistic stance toward future polysilicon prices, displaying a cautious approach to purchasing polysilicon.

On the flip side, polysilicon manufacturers are determined to maintain current prices and show no signs of reducing prices to clear inventory. In conclusion, a tug-of-war in pricing dynamics is evident between buyers and sellers.

• Wafer

The prices of wafer have maintained stable throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 P-type wafer is RMB 2.30/Pc, while G12 P-type wafer is priced at RMB 3.30/Pc and M10 N-type is priced at RMB2.40/Pc.

On the supply side, wafer inventory has returned to the reasonable range, sitting at approximately 1.3-1.5 billion pieces. Analyzing various wafer types, the inventory of 210mm P-type wafers has seen a notable decrease, with the consumption rate slowing due to weakened demand.

With the alleviation of inventory pressure, specialized wafer manufacturers are ramping up their operational rates, resulting in a slight month-on-month increase in wafer output. Turning to the demand side, cell manufacturers are indicating a reduction in the production of 182mm P-type cells, while there’s no change in output for other cell types.

Consequently, the purchasing demand for 182mm P-type wafers is expected to decrease. Although wafer prices are holding steady this week, considering the divergent operational rates among downstream cell manufacturers, a future divergence in prices between N-type and P-type wafers is anticipated.

Moreover, attention should be directed towards whether the demand and supply relationship can sustain stable prices after the higher wafer activation rates lead to an increase in wafer output during the same period.

• Cell

Cell prices have maintained stable this week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 cell is RMB 0.46/W, while G12 cell is priced at RMB 0.56/W. The price of M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.49/W.

On the supply side, cell inventory can currently sustain for about six to seven days, but the pressure on inventory is mounting as downstream demand gradually declines. We’re currently in the midst of the technology iteration phase for N-type and P-type cells.

The production capacity of 182mm P-type cells has significantly dropped, leading to a decline in its OEM fees to 1.0-1.2 yuan. Given the current cell price and the manufacturing cost, the production line for 182mm P-type cells is operating at a loss, while the 210mm P-type cells are still profitable, thanks to orders this month.

However, as order deliveries conclude, the tense supply and demand dynamics are expected to ease. On the demand side, downstream module prices continue to slide, prompting module manufacturers to push for a reduction in cell prices. Additionally, customer demand is sluggish, and buyers are adopting a more cautious approach to future purchases.

This week, cell prices remain relatively stable, but production of 182mm P-type cells has been significantly reduced due to sustained losses, leading to a simultaneous decline in demand and supply. Nevertheless, there is still support from order deliveries for 210mm P-type cells.

In conclusion, with module prices consistently decreasing, we anticipate that cell prices will face increasing pressure in the coming weeks.

• Module

Module prices have gone down throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 1.03/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 1.04/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 1.04/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 1.05/W.

On the supply side, prices quoted by leading manufacturers to their dealers have plummeted to less than 1 yuan/W, and bidding prices for recent projects are hitting unprecedented lows. The competition among module manufacturers has reached a fever pitch, driving prices in the sector to their rock bottom.

As the N-type and P-type technology undergo iteration, production capacity is slated to be officially cleared at its current low price. Shifting to the demand side, October saw a month-on-month decrease in new PV installations, indicating a clear decline in installation demand, according to statistics from the NEA.

Although distributed PV installed capacity remains robust, it cannot sustain a significant increase, and centralized ground installations are entering their off-season. Additionally, there’s no indication of a rebound in overseas demand, making it challenging for customer demand for module purchases to turn positive.

As the year draws to a close and earinings reports will be reported, manufacturers are grappling with the pressure to meet annual goals, intensifying the need to clear inventory. However, they find themselves in a precarious position in negotiations with customers, compelling them to further reduce prices to facilitate more shipments.

In summary, module prices are experiencing a decline this week and are anticipated to further decrease in the near future.

Source to TrendForce, the latest solar materials price revealed that Polysilicon prices are declining due to decreased orders and increased supply; Wafer prices remain stable but face potential pressure.

• Polysilicon

Polysilicon prices continue to decline throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 65/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 63/KG, and N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 68/KG.

Looking at the market transaction dynamics, orders took a hit this week, and collectively signing orders within a centralized period has ceased. Observing the price trends, major manufacturers are experiencing a decline in new orders, causing a further narrowing of the transaction prices for both N-type and P-type polysilicon.

Looking at the supply side, the new production capacity of leading polysilicon manufacturers is set to come online this month, contributing to an uptick in output. Consequently, the polysilicon supply will continue to outpace demand, leading to a further increase in polysilicon inventory, which has now reached the range of 90,000 to 120,000 tons this week. Shifting the focus to the downstream industrial chain, the wafer inventory has reverted to a reasonable level, and there’s a slight uptick in the activation rate of crystal-pulling manufacturers.

This has resulted in an increased demand for polysilicon. However, this heightened demand is insufficient to counterbalance the marginal increase in polysilicon supply. In summary, the price of polysilicon is on a downward trajectory, and with new production capacities slated to come online by year-end, the short-term supply-demand imbalance is unlikely to be rectified.

Compounding this, the absence of concrete demand from customers indicates an anticipated further dip in polysilicon prices. The inventory of N-type polysilicon is expanding, intensifying pressure on upstream raw materials. Consequently, the support for N-type polysilicon prices is diminishing, and the price gap between N-type and P-type polysilicon is expected to shrink.

• Wafer

The prices of wafers have remained stable throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for the M10 P-type wafer is RMB 2.30/Pc, while the G12 P-type wafer is priced at RMB 3.30/Pc and the M10 N-type is priced at RMB2.40/Pc.

On the supply side, there are indications that specialized polysilicon manufacturers may ramp up their operating rates, primarily due to a reduction in wafer inventory. The current inventory of wafers has dwindled to the range of 1.4-1.6 billion pieces, bringing substantial relief to wafer manufacturers from inventory pressures. Switching to the demand side, the pressure on cell demand persists, with cell inventory remaining unconsumed.

Consequently, some cell manufacturers are contemplating production cuts to mitigate potential future losses. This slowdown in demand from cell manufacturers is causing a sluggishness in the demand for wafers. Currently, both wafer and cell prices are hovering close to their production costs, empowering manufacturers on both fronts to engage in assertive bargaining. As a result, it is anticipated that price negotiations will reach a stalemate in the short term.

In summary, wafer prices have held steady this week, but it’s crucial to remain vigilant as wafer prices might face renewed pressure. This could be triggered by a decline in upstream raw material prices and the persistent lack of positive momentum in downstream demand.

• Cell

Cell prices have been different with the G12 cell price rebounding and other types remaining stable this week. The mainstream concluded price for the M10 cell is RMB 0.46/W, while the G12 cell is priced at RMB 0.56/W. The price of the M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.49/W.

On the supply side, the overall cell inventory is proving challenging to deplete due to the persistently sluggish downstream demand. This situation is exerting increased pressure on cell inventory levels. Additionally, faced with the challenge of low cell prices, a portion of the high-cost P-type cell production capacity has been gradually scaled back. If prices continue to decline in the future, this segment of production capacity may eventually phase out.

This underscores the evolving landscape of P-type and N-type cell technologies, prompting cell manufacturers to reassess how they manage the older production capacity of P-type cells. Shifting to the demand side, module inventory remains elevated, yet overseas customer demand remains weak even during the peak season. In summary, cell prices have remained stable this week. With the support from the delivery of orders this month, there is intense demand for 210mm P-type cells, leading to a rebound in their prices.

• Module

Module prices have gone down slightly throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 1.06/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 1.08/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 1.07/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 1.09/W.

On the supply side, there’s a divergence in production schedules among module manufacturers. First-tier manufacturers are maintaining stable delivery schedules with sufficient orders, while second and third-tier manufacturers are compelled to scale back production to avert losses. Additionally, it’s crucial to monitor the impact of backhaul orders’ sale prices on domestic module prices. Turning to the demand side, overseas module inventory remains elevated, coupled with sluggish purchasing demand.

The customer demand for modules is heading into the off-season. Furthermore, the demand for distributed PV installations is struggling to turn positive due to overall weak demand. Faced with weak downstream demand, module manufacturers are adopting a strategy of lowering prices to facilitate more shipments, driven by the imperative to clear inventory by year-end. In summary, module prices are anticipated to experience a slight decline this week.

Read more:

• PV Industry Supply Chain Price Update
• PV Materials Price in Early November

In TrendForce’s latest solar energy pricing, it is revealed that upstream polysilicon and wafer transactions have reached a standstill, while downstream cell and module prices continue to decline.

• Polysilicon

Polysilicon prices continue to decline throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 70/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 68/KG and N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 75/KG.

In terms of trading, this week has shown a slight improvement compared to the stagnation of the previous week. Some small orders have been placed, but the majority of companies are still in the negotiation process. Additionally, there are ongoing discussions about transaction prices for polysilicon and crystal pulling.

Examining the price trends, there’s a notable divergence between leading manufacturers and second-tier manufacturers, with the current prices approaching the cost threshold for the latter and older capacity.

When we analyze the supply and demand dynamics, it becomes evident that as polysilicon prices continue to decline, downstream manufacturers are considering production cuts, and new production capacity might face the challenge of running at a loss right after starting operations.

Moreover, considering the projected oversupply in the future and the potential for prices to hit rock bottom, some manufacturers have realized that the profits from new production capacity may differ significantly from their expectations, prompting them to adjust their production schedules.

However, in the short term, polysilicon output is showing a month-on-month growth trend this quarter. As downstream demand decreases, polysilicon prices will likely continue to face pressure. Overall, this week has seen a decline in quoted polysilicon prices, and the price gap between N-type and P-type polysilicon continues to narrow.

• Wafer

The prices of wafer have still reduced throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 wafer is RMB 2.30/Pc, while G12 wafer is priced at RMB 3.30/Pc. The current cell prices are causing significant losses in the cell business, leading to a substantial reduction in activation rates.

The overall market turnover is currently sluggish. Additionally, the quoted prices only reflect the trend of declining wafer prices and may not accurately represent the actual transaction prices for spot goods.

On the supply side, wafer prices have continued to decline over the past two weeks. If the prices of different types of wafers keep dropping, manufacturers may find themselves in a situation where their costs exceed their selling prices.

Consequently, wafer production schedules have seen a significant reduction, forcing some second and third-tier manufacturers to maintain OEM business for meager profits. The current wafer inventory level has decreased to 1.9-2.1 billion pieces, and there are indications that prices are reaching a bottom in the market.

On the demand side, downstream cell manufacturers are gradually reducing their production schedules, and inventory issues have not been effectively resolved. As a result, cell manufacturers are becoming more cautious when it comes to purchasing wafers. This week, wafer prices have continued to decline, but the rate of decline will narrow with cost support.

However, considering the price pressure imposed by downstream consumers, their high inventory levels, and other factors, wafer prices have yet to stabilize and are likely to continue falling in the future.

• Cell

Cell prices have still declined this week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 cell is RMB 0.48/W, while G12 cell is priced at RMB 0.52/W. The price of M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.49/W.

On the supply side, current cell inventory has remained high for more than seven days. Consequently, facing pressure from both the elevated inventory levels and downstream module manufacturers, cell prices have experienced a decline.

The current price of M10 P-type cells stands at 0.48 yuan per watt, which is approaching the production cost of leading integrated manufacturers. The reduction in cell production is the current scenario.

However, the shipment pressures haven’t been alleviated, and the price gap between N-type and P-type cells has narrowed, putting both types at risk of operating at a loss due to costs exceeding their prices. On the demand side, the domestic peak season for centralized cell procurement has concluded, and there has been no significant uptick in demand in overseas markets or the distributed PV sector.

As a result, the demand for cells has weakened. With module prices also under pressure, module manufacturers are inclined to push down cell prices. Although there has been some improvement in the rate of decline for cells this week, the accumulation of cell inventory, falling upstream material prices, and sluggish downstream demand continue to exert constant pressure on cell prices.

• Module

Module prices have gone down slightly throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 1.08/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 1.11/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 1.09/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 1.12/W.

On the supply side, module prices are persistently decreasing and have come close to the cost price of integrated manufacturers. Specialized module manufacturers, in response to module prices falling below their cost, have had to reduce their production rates to avoid losses. This is evident from the reduced demand for various auxiliary materials associated with module production.

On the demand side, the primary driver of demand continues to be large domestic projects, whereas overseas demand has not shown any significant increase. The overseas market is still working through its high inventory. In domestic bidding projects, there’s a noticeable shift toward an increased proportion of N-type modules, indicating a faster transition in demand toward N-type technologies.

In the third round of centralized procurement for PV modules by Huadian Group, the quoted price stands at 0.9933 yuan per watt. In the same month, the bidding price for modules in the centralized procurement tender by CHN Energy is 0.945 yuan per watt, marking a record low within a single month.

This price trend underscores the inevitable intense competition within the module sector, as excess production capacity is evident throughout the entire industry chain. This week, module prices have continued their descent. In summary, it’s probable that module prices will remain volatile in the future, especially considering that bidding prices for modules are swiftly approaching the 1 yuan mark.

Read more

• PV Industry Supply Chain Price Update

According to EnergyTrend, the New Energy Research Center under TrendForce, as of October 23, 2023, the prices for various photovoltaic materials and components have experienced changes:

For Polysilicon:

• Mono Recycled Polysilicon in RMB (Renminbi) dropped to RMB 72/KG, a decrease of 10%.
• Mono Grade Polysilicon in RMB decreased from RMB 78/KG to RMB 70/KG, a 10.26% decline.
• N-Type Polysilicon was quoted at RMB 78/KG, with a minor change of -15.22%.
• Polysilicon outside China was priced at US$20.55/KG.

For Wafer:

• M10 Mono Wafer in RMB were quoted at RMB 2.4/Pc, marking an 11.11% decrease; the latest pricing in USD was US$0.299/Pc, down by 11.01% from the previous US$0.336/Pc.
• G12 Mono Wafer in RMB were priced at RMB 3.4/Pc, showing a 5.56% decrease; the latest pricing in USD was US$0.422/Pc, a 5.59% drop.
• Since October 23rd, new N-Type M10 Mono Wafer was quoted at RMB 2.5/Pc.

For Cell:

• M10 Mono PERC Cell in RMB was priced at RMB 0.51/W, marking a 10.53% decrease; the USD pricing was US$0.065/W, down by 11.64% from the previous US$0.073/W.
• G12 Mono PERC Cell in RMB was quoted at RMB 0.53/W, representing a significant decrease of 10.17% from RMB 0.59/W; the latest USD price was US$0.067/W, showing an 11.84% decline.
• M10 TOPCon Cells in RMB decreased from RMB 0.6/W to RMB 0.52/W, down by 13.33%.

For Modules:

• The price for 182mm facial Mono PERC Module was RMB 1.15/W, a 4.17% reduction from the previous week.
• Both 210mm facial Mono PERC Module and 182mm facial Mono PERC Module were quoted at RMB 1.16/W, with a change of 4.13%.
• The price for 210mm facial Mono PERC Module was RMB 1.17/W.

PV Glass prices were reported as follows:

• 2.0mm Coating was priced at RMB 20/㎡.
• 3.2mm Coating was priced at RMB 28/㎡.

Please note that this information is sourced from EnergyTrend and should be credited if used or referenced.